Opening Bank: £109.91
Daily Target (2.5%): £2.75
A successful trade again tonight, although not without a few minutes of worry...
I backed 0-0 1-0 and 0-1 for a total stake of £15 in the Johnstone's Paint tie between Southend and Gillingham. My intention was to insure the stake, or a large part of it, in the First Half Goals market. The concern with some of these lesser matches is that they don't always attract a huge amount of money, and that can make getting matched on some of the less popular markets a tad difficult. The flip side to that is that sometimes prices fall or rise considerably more quickly than in a market with good liquidity, and you can ask for better prices with a fair chance of getting matched. That proved to be the case in this game, and I was able to lay £15 in the Under 1.5 in the FHG market at 1.15 - a liability of £2.25 - at about the 17 minute mark.
Therein lies the 'gambling' aspect of a trade like this - had a goal been scored in those first 17 minutes I would have been left with only one active bet, and would have had no choice but to 'red up' and take a loss on the trade because I wasn't going to be around to trade the second half. But, no goal was scored and I felt the 'premium' paid for the 'insurance' was more than reasonable - I could now relax a little bit secure in the knowledge that I had some cover in case of one goal, and total cover if two goals were scored in a short space of time.
I allowed the 0-0 to run to 30 minutes and then took the profit on that scoreline. To have left it much longer would have denied me the opportunity of greening up on the U1.5 lay in the event of a goal. At the 40 minute mark I submitted the two lay bets to green the other two scorelines - then ensued the worrying period I referred to above...
The lay of 0-1 was matched pretty well immediately. However someone had offered a lay 1 tick higher than mine on the 1-0 scoreline and my bet was in the queue to be matched... then... SUSPENDED!! Let me assure you I am not a lucky person... and was convinced that it was Gills who had scored - and I'd laid that score off!! Luckily, for once, this was another of Betfair's long suspensions and when it was lifted the score was still level. The lay on 1-0 was matched just after the half time whistle and I went off to play badminton secure in the knowledge of a profit of £8.39 nett was already in the bag. Subtract the liability of £2.25 on the U1.5 lay leaves a profit of £6.14. I'll roll all of that amount back into the bank.
Profit: £6.14
Bank at end: £116.05
Tomorrow's proposed trade:
I must confess to actively disliking these blasted 'International Breaks'! They don't consider us soccer traders when they interrupt the major leagues for a fortnight just after it has all started up again! That said, tomorrow's in-play card looks ok and two matches have caught my eye.
The Johnstone's Paint tie between Sheffield Wednesday and Notts County screams 'goals' at me. I have placed a £50 back on 2-0 at the time of writing and would expect that price to come in a tick or two prior to kick off - so I'm hoping for a free bet there! If it doesn't get taken, fine. If it does and I can't lay it prior to kick off at a profit I'll just scratch or take a small loss on the chin. My main angle on this game will be to back 1-1, 2-1 and 1-2 and trade the scores as the goals go in.
The other match I'm considering is the Spanish Cup tie between Betis and Salamanca. This looks like a straightforward home win, but doesn't have the appearance of a goal-fest to it! I think this is a contender for 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 with some cover on the O2.5 goals market taken in play as the price rises.
Thoughts on the Ryder Cup
I don't envy Monty's job in picking his three wild cards, and only time will tell if he's done the right thing in leaving the likes of Casey and Rose out for Harrington, whose form has been indifferent of late and Luke Donald. What is interesting is the inclusion of both Molinari brothers whose golf this season has been extremely impressive.
Corey Pavin will be announcing his wild cards on 7th September. How amazing that Tiger is one of those waiting for the call....I'm not convinced Woods is a team player, but it would take substantial balls for Pavin to leave him stateside. The bank in my experiment is too small to have money tied up until early October, but I've put a few quid on Europe from my main account as I think the price will steam a bit between now and the first week of October. There will be masses of trading opportunities over the tournament weekend and I for one have already told the missus she needs to make alternative TV viewing arrangements!
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