27 Minutes - Aston Villa take the lead:
You can see that I had reduced my liability a bit by laying £2 from my 0-0 green - I had more lays waiting in the queue but the goal came too early.... I think the game is quite evenly matched, and am prepared to take a bit of a chance by doing nothing (unless there's another goal!) until half time...
Half Time
No further goals before half time -so have a cup of tea, and a fag, and then re-assess. At the moment I can hedge the entire market for the figures circled in green.... for a total of £22.81 - leaving a green of £6.81 on all scores less commission.
I am prepared to lose £10 on this trade... so I can lay 1-1 for £6 which would reduce my profit on 1-1 to leave me with £17.60 green on 1-1, and over £50 on 1-2 and 2-1 red £10 the rest. Or, with Villa 2.66 in the next goal market I can back Villa to score next for £3.61 - so if Villa score next I win £6 on that bet, and would still be able to green 1-2 on CS....if it stays 0-1 I've increased my liability totally by £3.61....
The decision I have taken is to lay £6 off 1-1 but to do it in drips - the 1-1 score odds will continue to come in as the game goes on at 0-1...
1-1 - It's all starting to come together beautifully
Just after the Wolves equaliser...
This screen was taken after I'd sorted out my position after the Wolves equaliser had gone in. You can see that I have completely hedged the 1-1 scoreline, and have also taken a £5 lay on both 1-2 and 2-1 to give a green overall of about £18 with £50 odd sitting on the other two scores.
I am effectively laying the draw here with absolutely no downside - I have a number of options. I can stand my ground and hope for a winner. I could look to green totally on 1-2 and 2-1 or i could wait a few minutes before deciding. The latter is what I'm going to do - I'm happy with £18 as a profit but will enhance it if and when I can. In fact, I also took advantage of 2-2 being at 40 to put a pound on that as well...
I love it when a plan comes together
A text book trade - everything worked as it said on the tin!
If you are wondering why the prices are all over the place.... it's because I laid 1-2 in the final few minutes at 1.15 for £20 in case of a last gasp goal.
I am so glad this trade worked out this way; but in a way it would have been better and more instructive had it not been so swimmingly easy! Having said that, in my view just under £40 from stakes of £18 represents great value for a simple strategy like this....
Hi GUndulf
ReplyDeleteCongratulation for this trade
For protect to 0-0 or 1-0/0-1 i use sometimes under 1.5 goals for 1 or 1.5 £ ( I play with 3£ for 1-1 and 2£ for 1-2/2-1 ) .
Many thanks for the last few post .Very helpful for me .
Nice one Gundulf! Great explanation, thanks. I like the free trade cover on 0-0 pre match. Careful scalping that in play like ya did though mate. For a while you had half you bank exposed and even though unlikely a quick goal and ya'd be cursing. Would make sense with a 1000 bank but not 200. Sorry don't want to be the voice of doom after such a well executed trade.
ReplyDeleteGreat post Gundulf and a very nice trade. I do have one question. If you hadn't taken any cover on the 0-0 and it was goal less at HT, what sort of percentage red would you be looking at compared to your initial stakes if you wanted to trade out?
ReplyDelete