The only way this experiment is going to be successful is if I can stick to trading and avoid punting...that word 'DISCIPLINE' is rearing its ugly head again! The downside to that statement is that there is, as far as I know, no magical way of determining how to start your trade - so to some extent every trade is a 'punt'. But the good news is that there are several ways in which you can reduce the risk involved with taking a position in a market. Firstly, there is research. Secondly there are services out there which are designed to point you in the right direction, together with some tools to help you decide on a course of action - an investment strategy - if you like.
When assessing a football match, the first thing I do is to check the stats for the teams involved, then compare what I find with the prices available on certain markets on Betfair. Provided you can discern a correlation between what the stats are telling you, and what the market is suggesting, you should have the foundation of a relatively safe trade.
Listed below are some of the best ones I've found in my wanderings around the world wide web..
The first port of call is Betfair's own form guide, found by clicking the 'Form Stats' link on the title bar of the match you are looking at.
Other stat sites, in no particular order include:
Soccer Stats (excellent stats)
Bet Devil (basic site is free, with membership options)
League Day (again an excellent free site)
There are others, including some excellent forums - OLBG for example, and the forums attached to the two software programs detailed here.
There are many others; please feel free to suggest any particularly good and useful sites you might come across.