Thursday, 6 January 2011

This is what happens when the discipline goes...

Perhaps it would have been better had I been late home from work last night! Having plenty of time to think sometimes goes against me, and I  wonder how many other people last night set trades up on the basis that Arsenal v Man City would produce goals and that Liverpool and Chelsea would probably win their games against weaker opposition! Who also would have predicted Bilbao holding out for a 1-1 against Barca (even with the latter playing a 'cup' side)?

I did all of the above and called every single match wrong - I'll spare you the grizzly details but suffice to say that poor judgement, combined with lack of suitable cover and a spot of 'chasing' resulted in a £78.11 loss. And it was all going so swimmingly well up to that point!

There is a silver lining to the cloud though - I forgot completely to get out of my draw lay in the Ashes Test - and have just laid England for £100 at 1.03 to give a £30 green on England, £50 on the draw and over £100 if Australia pull off the miracle of the century!

Being able to move the £50 liability on that trade back into my main wallet also psychologically lessens the blow of losing that money last night as the main wallet balance is now only £30 down as opposed to nearly £80! Kidding myself I know but I think things like that can be positives - it depends on how you view them!

Wednesday, 5 January 2011

Late home, so a quiet night in...

... front of the lappy!

I didn't get home until gone 7.30 tonight - too late to set any decent sized trades up properly by the time I'd had dinner and booted up the pc. A 20 minute lay of Manchester United in the Half Time market enabled me to make a £15 green book - they scored minutes later - timing is everything in this business! A couple of successful Scatter Guns (1-1 2-1 1-2) and a couple of losses meant a profit for the evening of £33.12 after commission. I'm reasonably happy with that - the trend is good!

I laid the draw in the Test Match the other night at 2.62. Because of the time delay and having to get up for work I can't really trade it effectively. Watching the market last night I could (should??) have greened up at about 7 after the eighth Aussie wicket fell...however I managed to convince myself that our bowlers would skittle the last two wickets down in short order, so, being a greedy so and so I put up a greening bet at 8.6! I should have known better - a decent partnership added another 90 odd runs to the Aussie total and there was a minor English batting, for now anyway, the moment has passed!

Why do I do it? I'm nearer fifty than I am forty and although I wouldn't say I'm knowledgeable about cricket I think I've seen enough decent Aussie last wicket or two stands and English batting collapses over the years to know better.

I can green up now at 4.1 as I write this, with England nudging their way into 210 - 4.... but I think I'll delay a decision until tomorrow night when I'll either get out for what I can or it will have swung the other way and I'll be quids in front. I've only got £50 exposed to this trade, so it's not a massive issue, but then I don't wish to be reckless either. I do remember reading somewhere that no-one ever went to the poor house by laying the draw in a five day test...we shall see.

Tuesday, 4 January 2011

Dithering - a cause of opportunities missed....

After the relative success of the early game I had an up and down trading session today - punctuated by successes and failures, but the general trend was upward...and I finished the day with a healthy £82.47 profit. But I missed a big opportunity - and it goes back to the premise that sometimes you've got to dig deeper into the hole that you're in to get out of it!

I had set up a trade on the Getafe v Real Madrid match, the idea being to back Real winning scores whilst at the same time laying them in match odds. Ideally there should also have been some cover on there being 4.5 or more goals. By being greedy, and waiting to go in-play before trying to get any O4.5 cover I ended up with a £75 potential red after just 10 minutes as Real took a 2 goal lead. Fearing the worst I decided to get out of the match with what I could, and redded up for an overall loss of approximately £30 across the match odds and correct score markets. Needless to say the relentless pace of the opening few minutes abated, and at 75 minutes the score was 1-3 - annoyingly one of the scores I'd earlier backed! Anyway, I'm sitting there with roughly £20 red on CS and £10 red on Match odds and I started pondering ways in which I might reduce that red. Real were 1.02 to lay in match odds - so that seemed a no-brainer as a goal with anything less than seconds left from Getafe would enable a profit so I did that. At that point I could have backed 2-3 for about 16's  and 3-3 for about 100 - but of course muggins was worried about the Any Unquoted - then at about 2.4 and not really worth touching. The image below shows the 3-3 market and I've highlighted the period of time that I'm talking about...

You're probably wondering why the 3-3 price crashed! Well, two reasons! One, a red card to Real Madrid and 2) Getafe scored a f*****g goal! So - if I'd put £3 on 2-3 and £2 on 3-3 I'd have increased my overall red position from about £31 to about £35 - big deal! But, because my eye was on the bigger team and the threat posed by 1-4 I dithered - playing about with the 'What If?' on Betfair - trying to save a few coppers...I KNEW backing 2-3 and 3-3 were both sensible trading moves but inertia got the better of me. I was able to reduce my overall red by backing Madrid at 2-3 but of course they went on to win anyway. I haven't worked out what my position could have been - I don't really want to dwell any more on it ... but it would have given me a three figure profit for the day, that's for sure!

So there we are - if you know something is the right trading move to make - do it and live with the consequences if you are wrong. Believe me I would have much preferred to have lost an extra fiver than  to be sitting here stewing over such a penny pinching balls up!

Monday, 3 January 2011

The 'Back scores to under 3.5' Strategy in action

The Huddersfield v Sheffield Wednesday match seemed to suit this strategy to a tee. I forgot to take a screenshot of the starting position so you'll have to make do with one at half time and one at full time. The entire £100 stake on the Correct Score market was covered by laying Under 3.5 - but having backed the same first - thus reducing the 'cost' of the insurance. You will notice two unmatched bets in the U3.5 shot - they were there to give me a profit on the game if there was a last minute goalfest!

The start / Half Time position:

The covered by Under 3.5 lays position at about 55 minutes:

And finally the (just before) Full Time position:

So with a stake of £100 I generated a profit of £40.09 across two markets nett of commission. I'm beginning to like this trade - even if it is INCREDIBLY boring!

Sunday, 2 January 2011

2nd January - may the trend continue

Another great evening on the 'trading floor'. A day at work meant that I was unfortunately unable to trade the day's earlier games, including the nail-biting Chelsea v Aston Villa match. Returning home just in time for the Barca game and a few 2nd division Spanish games I quickly amassed a sizeable loss due to making the assumption that Barca would cruise past Levant as Real had a few days ago.

Having been called to dinner I returned to my desk to spot that Porto v Nacional was 0-0 and U2.5 was dropping rapidly. Unable to resist a low liability lay I laid £100 at 1.12 for a twelve pound liability - three goals and fifteen minutes later the trade was home! Nacional had taken a 1-2 lead. Unable to believe that the odds on favourites would come unstuck against relatively lowly opposition I laid Nacional in match odds - but they were able to hold on so I lost an unnecessary twelve pounds there...

Then there was another Portuguese cup game between Benfica and Maritimo. I backed Benfica winning scores, covering my stake in match odds and U3.5 as can be seen from the screenshot of the profit and loss below. The trade generated just over £20 after commission. I also managed a small profit using a similar technique in the Primera division game between Sevilla and Osasuna.

A good couple of hours, showing a profit of nearly £90.

A quick glance at the current bank situation will show that after just two days trading I have managed to reduce the percentage of bank required to hit £21 nett per day has already fallen from 4.42% to 3.64% - a very good state of affairs from where I sit!

Saturday, 1 January 2011

A Happy and Prosperous New Year - a good start and a mistake!

Tried a couple of slightly different trades today, with mixed success. The early kick-off was the Hearts / Hibs derby north of the border. I employed a little strategy I've used before with some success - namely to dutch all scores up to 3 goals - so 0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1 and then look to cover the entire stake by laying under 3.5 goals in stages as the odds drop. Coupled with scalping the U1.5 market this technique can be a profitable low(ish) risk trade. With the game 0-0 at nearly 80 minutes I decided to use half the profit made on U1.5 goals to lay the same .... Hearts duly obliged with a late goal and I was able to generate a net green after commission of £45.18 across four markets.

There followed a few topsy turvey trades that didn't go quite right until I repeated the same idea in both the Stoke v Everton and Watford v Portsmouth games. It's a good strategy - the trick is to cover your Correct Score stakes (plus a small profit if you wish) on the U3.5 goal markets and then LEAVE IT ALONE! Don't tinker!

The mistake? One of judgement I suppose. I thought Liverpool might struggle against Bolton but suspected they might rebound after their embarrassment the other night against Wolves. So I just put a fiver each on 2-1 and 2-2 giving me £40 and £100 green respectively. Sure enough, Bolton scored just before half time. When Liverpool equalised just after half time the price of both 2-1 and 2-2 plummeted and here I made a mistake. I took the green on 2-1, leaving a green of just over £4 on all scores and about £120 on 2-2. What I should have done was to have laid 2-2 at 1-1 - 2-1 was always the more likely outcome so I had managed to turn a potential £50 green into less than a fiver. Lesson learnt!

A £59 profit on the day, so a good start to the relaunch - £20 toward those poxy bills and £29 re-invested!