Wednesday 29 September 2010

I don't want to become a one trick pony....or do I?

Starting Bank: £273.22

Daily Target (2.5%): £6.83

I really am caught in two minds at the moment. I am convinced that given the right match the 1-1 1-2 2-1 can be traded successfully for fairly low stakes more often than not. As such I am also pretty close to being convinced that I can accomplish the aim of this whole escapade pretty well exclusively using that trade. How boring would that be?

On the other hand, does it really matter if it is 'boring'? I wanted to bring discipline into my trading, and if that comes in the form of a simple, low risk, easily repeatable trade is that a bad thing? I know that I, my family and probably my bank manager could live with the idea that a boring trade regularly drips £30 - 50 TAX FREE into my household coffers!

I still have regressive moments, such as last night. A trade goes against me - in the case of Malaga in a pretty quick and irretrievable fashion - and I KNOW I should just take the red on the chin, protect my bank, and move on to tomorrow. And I am doing this most of the time. Last night I managed to turn a small red into a bigger red - and that's just plain stupid!

With a trade like 1-1 1-2 2-1 (I'm going to have to come up with a name for this - it gets tiresome typing that out all the time!) it's rare that the whole of my stake is at risk, particularly if I am able to get some free cover on 0-0 before the off. I reckon I lose a bit approximately every four trades - so it's a 'no-brainer' really.

I did one simple, but losing, trade today. I imagined the Special One's multi-millionaires would smash little Auxerre into the middle of next week. OK they played out a boring 0-0 first half, but surely Real's quality would shine through in the second?? It was on that (flawed) premise that I laid U3.5 at 1.13 for £100 at about 30 minutes. I went out to play badminton at half time and decided to turn that 'trade' into a punt! A 1 goal win by Real cost me £13 tonight!


Day's Profit: -£13.00

Bank to carry forward: £260.22

5 comments:

  1. Loving the blog Gun. Am reading it most days and seeing the results is giving me more inspiration to do things your way and aim for a more modest green and use a lot less of my bank. My staking plans were/are not strong enough.

    Quick question, how are you picking your matches for 1-1, 2-1, 1-2? Evenly matched sides where you expect a couple of goals, but are you looking at half time form or anything else like that? If you don't get your pre match scalp of 0-0 are you using a defined exit point or letting the trade run for 90mins?

    Cheers

    Longy

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  2. I don't think there's anything wrong with using a strategy that works for you. Everyone has their own trading style and this works and suits yours. By all means use a different strategy when you see an opportunity but don't do it for the sake of it.

    As for being boring... well I'm not bored reading about it and every game, market and trade is different. Some day they will go your way and exactly to plan, other times they won't and you'll learn the more times you execute it. Keep going as you were, I say

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  3. jdt, thanks for the calming words! In my heart I know you are 100% right and I'm pleased it's not boring everyone to death!

    Longy!!! Long time no speak - all is revealed in the post about the anatomy of the trade. I do glance at form etc but not in great detail. I think I've seen enough betfair footie markets to more or less trust the market to assess the game for me. And, once in a while, a Malaga game comes along to make me question my judgement... just for a while!

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  4. I can guarantee you if I ever find a system that works, I won't care how boring it is, I will bore the arse of myself with it as long as it works.

    Don't knock yourself for it either.

    I've been trying to find a system for the best part of a 8-9 months now, I've done a bit of the 2-1,1-2,2-2 bets.

    I've tried the 'Any Unquoted Score' for Barca, Real Madrid (before the Special One arrived and parked the bus), Man Utd, Chelsea games etc.

    And now I'm having a go with the under/over 2.5 or 3.5 goals. None have been a resounding success, but a lot of that is probably down to my lack of discipline. As have had a chance to trade out on many occasion and have stayed in hoping for a larger profit.

    On a positive, I too started with a modest betting bank (£50), and I have just over £100 in account now. So at least I haven't lost (which is a massive turning point for me), but I won't be retiring from the 9-5 any time soon either.

    Keep it up!

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  5. You are right Dean! The self doubts are over - if my trading bores people - tough!!! It works for me and suits my trading temperament.

    Good luck with your endeavours - stick with it!

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