Wednesday, 31 October 2012

1.01 on Under 2.5 goals over turned in Brazil....

Gun junior needed picking up late this evening so I decided to trade the match in the Campeonata between Parana and ABC. I did one of my favourite trades for Brazillian games, putting £10 each on 0- 0 1-0 0-1 and 1-1. Past experience suggests Brazillian games are often goalless at half time or goalfests by half time. This match fell into the former camp, and I removed my stake on 0-0 at half time leaving nice profits on the other three backed scores and a £30 red on the rest. I drip laid U2.5 from about 1.2 down to 1.1 and then did the same on the U1.5 from 1.15 down, both being more than covered by the green I'd got on 0-0.

I noticed that U2.5 traded at 1.01, but decided to leave it alone as I was only just in profit and had sort of resigned myself to having spent 90 minutes on the game to earn about a tenner! The screenshot below tells the story of the last ten minutes....

The only thing wrong with the whole game was that 1-2 was reached via 0-2 rather than 1-1! Had that happened I really would have hit the jackpot. As it was I managed over £300 green from an initial exposure of £40.....when's Gun junior's next late night shift at his work?

Tuesday, 30 October 2012

Care for another cucumber sandwich, Vicar?

Whilst not wishing to condone racism, sexism, homophobia or any other 'ism' or 'ia' in any way, am I the only one who thinks our national game is suffering from excessive levels of politcally correct bunkum at the moment?

Whatever the truth in the 'Clattergate' case I've got to say it looks suspiciously like sour grapes on the part of the team I've supported since I was about nine. The catalogue of errors in the officiating on Sunday leaves a lot to be desired, and it could have a massive impact on the outcome of the Premiership this season. I'm reasonably confident that all bar ardent United fans will be thinking along the lines of 'they always get the rub of the green' - it certainly seems that way to me. Obviously we will never know now, but the on-going investigations by both the footballing authorities and the police (who must have something better to do?) will rumble around football for ages. I'm not sure how much, if any, good will come of it.

The level that most of us get to play football at is obviously a long way downscale of the likes of Chelsea and United, yet 'industrial' language, hard tackling and personal banter are all part of the fabric of the game. It can, and does, go too far. But I think we need to reign in a bit or we'll end up with a practically silent, non-physical game where players are frightened to say 'boo' to a ghost or to tackle anyone.

Please, let's not let football get like the parish tea party!

An eventful evening's trading tonight, the highlight of which was doubling up on a previous lay of Reading (at 3-0) after they scored a fourth against the Gooners. Not normally one to cheer Arsenal goals, the fourth one, on the stroke of full time made me a handsome green this evening - proving that sometimes getting in deeper is the way to get out greener.

Tuesday, 9 October 2012

Odds on laying in the long term markets...

I haven't in the past got involved in any of the long term markets featuring league winners or relegation candidates this early in the season. I dabbled rather successfully in the closing stages of the Premiership last season when a judicious lay of United at 1.42 was helped enormously when Everton held them to a 4-4 draw, despite looking like a losing trade as that particular game got under way. We all know what happened after that, and it's fair to say that the Premiership doesn't usually go quite that close to the wire at the top end.

Bet19 produces an interesting and well written blog. For this season he has invested a £500 bank on the long term markets surrounding the Premiership, aiming to double his investment over the course of the season. He charts his progress periodically, giving his thoughts and reasons for his actions and ponderings. A recent post caused me to question his intention of taking a loss on a particular lay he'd made after only 7 games, but what it also did was cause me to have a bit of a poke around some of these markets.

Regular readers will know that I like trading French football, so my first port of call was the Winners market for Ligue 1. The screengrab below shows the situation after just 8 games.

Marseilles currently top Ligue 1 with 19 points, PSG are second with 16 followed by Lyons with 15. And PSG can be laid for 1.39. When I laid United at 1.42 the season was 30 odd matches old. Yet here I can lay PSG for a lower price after 8 matches!

I moved on to Serie A. Juve and Napoli neck and neck after 7 matches, Juve 1.6 to lay. Anderlecht odds on in the Jupiler league market, currently lying third and a few points off the pace.

These are the standouts, and I must admit to having nowhere near the depth of knowledge about any of these clubs or leagues that I have of the Premiership. But surely these prices are immensely layable, not necessarily as a straight bet but as a longer term trade.

I haven't placed any lay bets as yet as at the moment I don't feel I understand sufficiently the dynamics of these markets, and some of the lesser leagues suffer from poor liquidity, but my interest has been aroused and I shall be looking at them again over the coming weeks. My experience of English football suggests that Christmas is really the earliest that one can take a truly objective view of league tables, and I wonder whether that is the case with some of these other leagues.

It would be interesting to hear from readers who have greater experience of these markets - I wonder if any of them also think these prices are too low too early?

Wednesday, 3 October 2012

A funny old night in the Champions League

Up and down, you might say, but fortunately not out!

It all started swimmingly enough with a lay of AC Milan in Match Odds when they were 0-2 to Zenit, followed by a tasty little LTD (something I rarely do, these days) at 2-2 for a healthy profit as AC scored a third toward the end of the game.

The evening games were something of a mixed bag. The City game caught me out, as I left it alone in the first half whilst listening on the radio. It sounded as if there could have been about 6 goals before the break, in fact some wag in chat said 'Hart 0 Dortmund 0 ' at half-time. Convinced there would be goals in the second half I laid U3.5 goals for too much money at too high a price. The (rather lucky for City) 1-1 scoreline featured goals that came just too late to make anything of that particular piece of inspired trading.

Better things came of the Porto v PSG tie where a back of 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 paid dividends when Porto nicked a late goal, just after I'd hedged most of my 0-0 profit. The Gooners flattered to deceive as usual, and I couldn't resist a back of 0-0 pre-match. I drip laid my way out of that £2 at a time, putting the same £2 on Any Unquoted as the price rose for a scratch on all bar that score. Shame the fourth goal didn't materialise as I chose to leave it there rather than doing the smart thing which would have been to hedge at 2-1 and then drip it back in again to at least leave some green all over the market.

As usual these days I seemed completely capable of totally avoiding both games that had the best trading opportunites for the old Scatter Gun - namely the Shalke and 'Boro games although I know a few made good greens on both of them. The only other little light in the corner came from laying Real at 0-2 and greening immediately Ajax pulled one back. Good job I did as RM duly came out 1-4 winners.

So, all in all, an evening of missed opportunities really! I finished up about £20 down so no disasters and it was enjoyable trying to pull it all together.

I'm intending to have a much better night in the Europa League tomorrow night. I'm not going to lose a single trade there. I can say this with absolute confidence, because after last week's heavy losses with this competition I've perfected a new trading strategy especially for this terribly unpredictable league. It's called the 'Leave it alone' trade. And that's what I shall do. Promise.

Monday, 1 October 2012

How much did Tiger cost people last night, I wonder?

In about 6 or 7 scintillating hours of golf, which resulted in the USA snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, the Winner's market in the Ryder Cup was an interesting spectacle. The USA went as low as 1.08 - before a any of the twelve singles matches had been closed out! Ridiculous. The Tie, a rare, almost impossibly rare, event traded as low as 1.17. At 13-13 the market resembled what I am more used to looking at before the start of a very close football match, with all three outcomes priced around the three mark. Close to £20,000,000 had been matched in just that market.

When Kaymer sank that put on the 18th green to retain the Ryder Cup a Tie was very much the most likely result. The final pair, Woods and Molinari, were on the fairway and Woods was 1 up.. so unless he lost the hole the Americans would tie the contest.

I'm sure I'm not alone in being stunned when he missed a putt you'd normally put your house on him making, and then in a display of great sportsmanship (I think...) he conceded both the hole, and, effectively, the Tie. Interviewed afterwards he said:

"To be honest I didn't really pay that much attention…after that all went down, my putt was useless. It was inconsequential. So I hit it too quick and gave him his putt and it was already over,"

The 'inconsequential' putt did have some consequences for some of Britain's biggest bookies, however...

Ladbrokes admitted Tiger's actions cost them £650,000 while Coral took a hit for £400,000. Sky Bet were another company that lost big.
"No one bets on a tie. It cost us just over £650,000 last night on Tiger's miss. Tiger is not a bookie's friend this morning," a Ladbrokes spokesperson told the Daily Mail. 
I'm sure not too many people reading this will be crying in their beer for the bookies, but I'd be very surprised if there aren't a good number of people who'd backed the Tie into nearly single figures nursing severe intentions of causing Tiger irreparable personal injury this morning.

In Tiger's defence the event was, indeed, already over and done with. The Europeans were celebrating and it's not hard to imagine how deflated he must have felt, probably emotionally drained and in need of a pint. That's how I feel trudging off the 18th having lost on the 17th, and I for one will forgive him for not concentrating on the putt in the way he would if were a putt to win the Masters.