Euro Qualifiers - Traders's heaven or a banana skin?

There are some .... interesting games tomorrow, and I'm going to try to pick a couple of trades from amongst them.

Firstly, what about the two World Cup round 1 casualties, France and Italy? Odds on favourites in their respective games. Have they shaken off their dismal performances in South Africa and are they now safe bets? They both SHOULD be but I, for one, will be leaving well alone - unless an opportunity presents itself during play.

From the rest I am looking at 3 games in particular. There will be a load of patriotic, or 'fan' money on England - and there is a strong argument that they are under priced. A strange looking team (in terms of a lack of 'regulars') and a question mark over the manager....Having said all that you've got to think the team will have 'something to prove'. The question, for me, is how long will it take them to score? I think they'll win the game, but wonder if it'll take them a while to gel. So my intention is to lay them for £10 in the First Half market - looking to take a small green after 15-20 minutes. I won't be insuring that trade so it's a tad risky....

The Republic of Ireland get their campaign off the ground earlier in the day away to Armenia, and are odds-on to win. Over 2.5 goals is currently at 2.44 so it seems to me that a trade on 0-0, 0-1, 1-1 and 1-0 for twenty minutes, covered by a bet on overs, will work out quite nicely...

Now for the riskier one.... Andorra v Russia. Betfair, for reasons best known to themselves, have put this game on the un-managed in-play coupon, and Russia are available to lay at 1.05. I'll lay them £100 - so a fiver liability. I don't expect Andorra to win, or even to draw. But I do expect them to 'park the bus' in a quite physical way and expect to be able to nick a few ticks here.

There are a number of excellent 'Lay the Draw' opportunites on the coupon, and I'll be keeping a watching brief on those games, but have no plans at the moment to get involved with them. Anyone interested in Laying the Draw as a long term strategy can do a lot worse than having a look at RB's blog "The Dream is Still Alive" - link below.

That all looks quite a lot, but remember my target for tomorrow is a mere £3 and some coppers, so my exposure need not be massive...