People will have differing views on the validity of insurance, as discussed on the 'Fully Comp...' page. In my previous, non-disciplined, trading life I tended to not bother with insurance, because in my view if you've called the position correctly all you are doing is eating into your profit. However, by necessity, with a bank of £100 or so and a goal to turn that into £2k in about 4 months means that I can't afford too many days like Sunday....
Here's a screenshot of the markets available on the Granada v Betis game tomorrow night discussed in the post below..
I'm not saying it works all the time, but my approach to this kind of game (after having looked at the various stats sites) is as follows.
1) Look at the Match Odds - in this case the suggestion is that Betis will win, but it is far from overwhelming a suggestion. A quick check of recent head to heads show Betis spanking Granada at home 4-1 last time out - but this is a cup game and Granada are at home. In my mind I'm thinking 0-1 to 1-3 as possible scores.
2) Look at the O/U 2.5 market - suggestion is just on the side of unders, meaning the Overs price is not odds-on.
3) Look at the correct score market - 0-1 and 1-1 are the stand out scorelines.
4) Decide on total stake - I'll commit £15 to the CS market here - all spread across scores up to two goals - i.e none over 3
5) Decide how much 'insurance' you want - I'll insure from the outset to 50% of stake. To cover £7.50 with O2.5 at 2.28 will 'cost' me £5.85 if I back overs, BUT, and be sure to do this sum, only £5.77 if I LAY U2.5. It's only 8p - but imagine if you wanted £200 cover.......
Something I've recently got into the habit of doing is trying to get a green position on 0-0 without having a 'live' stake on it. With 0-0 currently at 10 I'd ask for 10.5 with £50 tonight. If the bet gets matched I'd put a lay bet of £50 in at 10. If that gets matched I'd have a green of £25 sitting on 0-0 - a score I would not therefore need to factor into my staking on the other scores. Just remember to make sure the lay bet is matched before kick off! Take a small red on it if need be. Read my 'Disaster' post to see what can go wrong if you don't do this!
Once the match goes in-play you can of course adjust your position. This looks like it could be a slow to boil match, so by 15 minutes you could probably top up to 100% stake insurance at about 1.5 to lay - so for another 3 quid or so...
There are many other ways you can use one market to offset a risk in another, but, jdt199, hopefully this has given you some insight into one possibility for you.
Wow! What a fully comprehensive answer to my question. I was only expecting a comment, thanks. That's a great insight into how to enter a CS market trade. I'll certainly have a try soon. Do you have strict criteria for choosing a game? I assume you want a game that's not too high scoring or is any good, and you simply take a view/position and run with it.
ReplyDeleteI'll have a go and see how the in play juggling works I think. I imagine that's another art in itself. Good call yesterday by the way, I had a similar view myself.
No problems! Some people prefer to trade potentially higher scoring games (where you back higher scores and use the higher price available on U2.5 as insurance) whereas my preference is for what I think will be low scoring games. I suppose flexibility is the key, together with the ability to take DECISIVE action should it all go tits up!
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