No - there isn't - but you can get damn close!
A little tactic I've been using recently involves backing 0-0 pre-match and laying one or two ticks lower for the same amount. Not a ball is going to be kicked - so there's no danger of a goal, and the upsides are good. I looked at tonight's Europa League match between Juve and Lech Poznan. At midnight the 0-0 odds were 20, and I could have matched £100. I thought they might slide a bit so put a back of £100 on at 21. Imagine my despair when I logged on this morning to find 0-0 trading at 18! Had I taken the 20 on offer I could now be sitting on a free green of £200 should the game finish 0-0!
Of course, the odds are 18, and were as high as 20, because the chances of this game ending 0-0 are slim. So how can the free green be used?
The most obvious thing to do would be to hedge the 0-0 scoreline, which would give a green on all scores of £11.11. That then would be job done - 11% return on investment with no risk whatsoever! Not, perhaps, the best use of the money though in my opinion.
With the 0-0 odds that high you will probably find that they will start steaming pretty quickly - so you could take the view that you could wait say 20 minutes into the match for a better hedge figure... but the hedge figure won't improve that much because of course you've no money left at risk. And if there's a goal then phhht ... all gone with nothing to show for it!
The odds on goals in this game tells me the market is expecting a high scoring match - U2.5 is at 2.28 at the time of writing. With my 'normal' bank I'd be looking at a number of different markets, but working with this small bank I'd spread about £40 around various correct scores all in Juve's favour and then lay Juve in match odds for £30 (currently trading at 1.34) in case they blow it! If by any chance the match remained 0-0 into the second half I could look at laying the draw using the remaining green on 0-0 to cover the liability (but, of course a 0-0 result would earn £30 anyway through laying Juve!)
So, some great upsides - what about the potential downside? There's only one, really, and that is that the price of 0-0 drifts out pre kick-off - leaving you with a choice of either hedging for a red, or laying off say £80 of the £100 originally backed and looking to lay off the remaining £20 in-play, keeping fingers, toes and everything else crossed that there isn't an early goal!
Just wish I'd done it! I've left a back bet there at 20 - as it might drift back out a bit as kick off approaches - we'll see.
This is something I like doing pre match on the match odds market of crazy short price teams. Of when Chelsea are playing some bottom table club their price can bounce around 1.13 ish for 48 or so before the match. Because if the low price a lot can be layed and subsequently backed for a tick higer for a good profit. This can normally be done a couple of times.
ReplyDeleteYou have to be aware a price can move against you so be aware of team news etc while you have bets in the market.
What's your experience with CS markets? How do you decide which way the market will move. I'd be worried of gaining an £11 red as much as £11 green??
My experience has been limited to 0-0 and, touch wood, it's been ok so far - win more than I lose. I know people who do the same thing on 2-0 and / or 3-0 / AU where there is a heavy home favourite...
ReplyDelete