The anatomy of the 1-1 1-2 2-1 Trade....

Have a look at the following table:

These figures are based on the entire 2009 -10 season, across several hundred games and are therefore reasonably reliable. You will see that between 55 and 60% of all matches played in these top quality leagues finish with the result coming from those 7 scores detailed above. The Betfair Correct Score markets cover 17 scores in total...You will also see that 1-1,1-2 and 2-1 account for about a quarter of those matches. That is the underlying background to this trade.


What matches to look out for

When assessing matches for this strategy I check two markets first before looking at CS. First, I'm looking for match odds of no lower than 1.8 for the favourite, and I'm also looking at U2.5 being around 1.9 - 2.1. If these criteria are met you will find more times than not that 1-1 is trading at between 7 and 8.5 and the other two at about 11-13. I would then usually back 1-1 for about 1.5 the amount I'm backing the other two for - so £3 1-1 £2 the others, £5 1-1, £3 the others or thereabouts. If the game is still 0-0 after half an hour I normally look to put a small amount on 2-2 at 25-30.

What can go wrong?


When assessing any Correct Score trades I think it's sensible to look at what might go wrong and by so doing to assess your 'danger scores'. We can then work out how to deal with them.

The first, and most distressing, danger is the dreaded 0-0! The easiest way I've found to alleviate this score is by backing and laying the same amount pre-match trying to make 1 or 2 ticks. By trading pre-match your stake itself is safe - the only danger is that the price moves against you rather than for you. My experience shows that if you back 0-0 with about 30 to 45 minutes to go you will usually get at least one tick movement. There are no guarantees - but often I can get between £35 and £50 'free' sitting on 0-0. In-play you can either just leave your money sitting on 0-0 or lay some of it off as the price of 0-0 drops.

There are only really two other main dangers; first that no goal is scored until very late in the game and the 1-1 price doesn't come in enough to lay it off profitably, the second that two goals come very early in the game resulting, again, in insufficient price movements. An absolute goalfest is always a possiblity, if you are nervous about that why not look at taking some cover in the U/O goal markets?


In-play trading


There are a number of ways this strategy can be traded in-play. In an ideal world the game would play out thus: dogs score first, bringing the 1-1 in. Favourites equalise at about 60 minutes - enabling a green of 1-1 to cover all stakes and give a profit on all scores. Then you can either green up across the board, or wait for a 1-2 or 2-1. At this stage you are effectively laying the draw with absolutely no downside! If you'd had the foresight to back 2-2 as well as the other scores you'd be laughing all the way to the bank if 2-1 or 1-2 comes before  the 80th minute! That's the ideal - and they happen surprisingly often.

There are danger points to consider and you need to have a plan...

Two quick goals bringing the score to 0-2 or 2-0 can be tricky as two thirds of your trade is gone in a flash. There's little you can do here - except to hedge your remaining bet and walk away - or you could stand firm if you're prepared for the fact that 3-0 or 0-3 (or staying the same until the end) will lose your entire stake. Another precaution might be to take a small bet on the Next Goal market - or if those goals are early in the game you could lay O2.5 goals at a very low price to guard against the game staying the same.

The game is 0-0 at half time...and you have no 0-0 cover as discussed above. Two choices really - hedge for a small loss or stand firm and hope for goals second half. You could consider backing 0-0 1-0 0-1 maybe to cover your stakes... use the 'what-if' on BF to see how to stake - but it will eat a lot of your potential profit!

The game is 0-0 at 80 mins and you have no 0-0 cover - consider hedging for a larger loss, and maybe lay 0-0 for the red amount - it obviously increases your exposure but if the game is won 1-0 or 0-1 puts you in a scratch position.

There are other banana skins - but the beauty of this trade, when it works, is that the return is generally pretty good.

SUMMARY

• Evenly matched games - home side no lower than 1.8 U2.5 around evens
• Set an amount of money / % of bank you are prepared to LOSE - work the rest of your plan out with that figure in mind.
• Try to get some free money on 0-0 pre-match
• Stakes should be around a straight dutch on 1-1 1-2 2-1
• 0-0 25 - 30 mins put a small amount on 2-2
• If a goal is scored I would usually try to lay half my total stakes on the 1-1 scoreline UNLESS the dog scores against the run of play
• 1-1 is where the paydirt starts. Green completely on 1-1 - will probably give an overall green on all scores. Then you can either let the other 2/3 ride for a while, or hedge all bets and go down the pub / move on to the next game!
• 0-0 HT - a) hedge for small loss or b) stand firm or c) cover 0-0 1-0 0-1
• 0-0 80 mins hedge for larger loss (unless 0-0 1-0 and 0-1 covered) and maybe lay 0-0 to cover that loss..

The most important thing to remember is this:

If a trade goes against you - DO SOMETHING POSITIVE to reduce / minimise your liabilities and losses. Don't sit there like a rabbit in the headlights - think outside the box - are there any other markets that might come to your rescue?