Something different today - approach from behind!

Starting Bank: £156.34

Daily Target (2.5%): £3.91

For some time I have had a spreadsheet I've developed to work out dutching back strategies, and have been banging my head against a wall trying to do the same for a dutching lay strategy. Then Mr Traderman on the Racing Traders forum came to my aid and pointed me in the direction of some help..

It's been an idea of mine to approach the Correct Score market in reverse as it were for a while now, but the maths was defeating me. When backing a dutched selection you are looking for the percentile chance of your selections winning to be below 100%; when looking to do the same thing by laying you want the book over 100%. Betfair's markets are so efficient that whichever you look at one the book percentage will usually be just over 100% on the back side, and just under 100% on the lay side - in other words you can't guarantee a win from a standing start by backing or laying all outcomes.

For today's little exercise I traded two games for miniscule stakes as I wasn't quite sure of what I was doing...

The first was Polonia v Lubin. For this match I dutch laid all scores from 2-1 1-2 up - in other words leaving the 0-0, 0-1, 1-0,1-1,2-0 and 0-2 scores uncovered. This gave me a return of about £15 with a liability of £36. I fully covered the £36 with a back of O2.5, but dripped the back in over the first half hour of the game. Fortunately it was 0-0 at half time, and that was when I really should have laid 0-0 in hindsight. But live and learn...Polonia scored at about 50 minutes, and 1-0 came into 2.7 immediately. Had I laid 0-0 at half time I would have had close to my 100% book and could have closed out for a profit later... As it was I had to let it run. No drama, but they then got a second at 69 minutes - at which point I could have made a handsome profit on CS AND greened up on my insurance of over 2.5 goals...PAYDIRT!!!! As it was a small profit ensued.

The second game, using the analysis done on my last post, was the Salamanca v Gimnastic game. This time I dutch laid all scores over 3-0, and was able to get cheap insurance via the O3.5 goals market to cover my liabilities of about £40. I used a similar approach to the above, again for a small profit.

There is mileage in this technique, but it's a long way from smooth at the moment. It's a theme I will return to, and, conscious that it must be difficult to follow the above, I will TRY to video the session.. no promises though!

Also in the mix today, although I'm not going to itemise them, were a couple of  late draw lays, one successful, one not and a bit of racing. All in all a profit of £8.46 against a target of £3.91. I'm getting more confident that this slow and steady approach will work - as long as I don't blow it by doing something daft...

Today's Profit: £8.46

 Bank to carry forward: £164.80

 Tomorrow's proposed trade

At this stage of the day, I honestly haven't got a clue! The boss has plans for my time tomorrow morning, so it will probably be a case of trying to get one or two of the 3pm Premiership games covered, followed maybe by a bit of Porto v Braga tomorrow evening.