I wonder whether the point of Cloppa's question wasn't more about the pricing than the timing. We all know that statistically the first goal in a football match comes after the half hour mark on average. Using Cloppa's example of the U1.5 market, and assuming as Cassini says the bet, and therefore the price, was value pre kick off, what has changed at 20, 23 or even 29 minutes? The answer, of course, is the price on offer!
I am finding my return on trades entered after half time (if the match is 0-0 at half time) have a much better return than the return on trades entered at kick off. The strike rate suffers a bit, but my figures suggest that the better prices on offer more than offset the lower s/r.
The downside to this approach is that you inevitably miss out on qualifying trades so I'm not suggesting that I do it all the time. There are certain leagues (France, Italy, Argentina and Brazil spring to mind) where 0-0 between evenly matched sides at half time is more common than others and it is to these leagues that I would look for later entry possibilities.
Hi Gun, here we go again with the value debate! I think you are missing something important here. Yes, the price is lower after half an hour but that doesn't mean it has suddenly become better value. Low does not = value. You now have half an hour less to get your goals, so of course the price is lower. If you take into account the fact you have less time, then you aren't getting any better value than you were at SP, so you may as well have taken the bet then and make sure you don't miss out on the early goal.
ReplyDeleteYou keep saying 'better prices' are on offer by waiting but in truth, they aren't better at all unless something drastic has happened in the match to suggest they are or unless your stats suggest that goals are more likely to come in the second half. That may not be a bad tactic then, to wait and go for late goals but you'll probably find you have a better strike rate if you just find value at SP and let it ride.
I said I wasn't going to get involved in these value debates but it seems I just can't help myself ;)
Lol Sultan, I knew you wouldn't be able to resist!
ReplyDeleteI understand completely what you and Cassini say and why you say it. I just don't think it's that black and white.
To me, part of the value question is my estimation of the trade succeeding - and that estimation won't change much over the course certainly of the first half of a football match. I'm prepared to forego some trades and get involved at more advantageous odds in certain circumstances and my own stats suggest this is very much a viable methodology with the correct selection criteria.
I see what you are saying and actually, it's something I used to do myself years ago. I would wait and hope no goals would go in for the first 20-30 mins, and then take the lower price. Not sure why I gave up on that but I was a terrible trader back then, so could be any number of reasons! Hope it goes well for you.
Deleteare you using level stakes though Gundulf?
ReplyDeleteru sure you have an edge?
AL
Al,
ReplyDeleteNo
Yes, but not sure how sharp it is sometimes!