Leaving it later

Extending my last post a bit, I think I need to clarify a couple things a bit. I'm not talking about betting on outcomes later in a match to get better odds - I'm  talking about getting better odds to trade a market with. To illustrate my point the image below shows the three scores I trade in the Correct Score market at both kick off and at half time.

I know the exact odds will differ slightly, and so, therefore, will my staking game to game. However the above is broadly representative of a typically evenly matched game such as I like to trade. The % figures are taken from 250 Premier League matches ytd courtesy of football data. I'm too tired to do it tonight but will check the same stats for the French league at some point - and wouldn't be at all surprised to see even higher instances of 1-1.

Speaking of 1-1 the thing that strikes me from looking at the above is how close the % of matches finishing thus are from kick off and from a 0-0 at half time situation. The 1-1 scoreline, as I've said before, is the key to this trade.

Let's assume that the away team have taken the lead, and the home side equalise at about the 65 minute mark. It's realistic to say the 1-1 would then trade at approximately 3 to lay, with 1-2 and 2-1 trading at 8 and 7.4 ish respectively.

It's at this point that people's individual actions will differ according to their trading style. Fairly obviously if you choose to exit the trade completely at this point there are relatively great differences in total hedged profits available:

Almost certainly I would choose not to hedge completely, and in both circumstances would lay 1-1 for my original 1-1 stake as soon as the market had settled - effectively leaving a reduced profit on that score in the hope (yes - hope / expectation - i.e. a gamble) of there being a winning goal. Should it stay 1-1 until that scoreline is available at 1.3 to lay I would then hedge it completely. It is in these circumstances that a very late winner really pays nicely.

Unfortunately the players don't always read the scripts that I send them, so the above is an ideal scenario. However, my experience is that if the match is 0-0 at half time and does, at some point, hit the magical 1-1 then it tends to  do so later than the 65th minute, so you could find yourself laying at a much lower figure than the 3 mentioned above, without too much detriment to the other two scores.

Equally there are other matches that finish 2-1 or 1-2 without going through the 1-1 score. The way these pan out is of course pure, unadulterated luck but many's the time I've had a last minute goal land a nice result. Those that finish 0-0 1-0 2-0 etc are, of course, wipeouts unless you've taken precautions against it somehow in this or another market.

The figures used here are accurate enough to be used as a guide, and interested parties will need to work out their own ways of handling each situation as it arises, but hopefully some sense can now be made of my preference to enter some trades at half time if I believe the game, and the odds, to be right.