Monday, 5 March 2012

Forget trading -this is more of a good old fashioned punt..

I'll start by saying that I'm no gooner! However, after that magnificent win against Spurs, and with a season that looked dead and buried back on some kind of track I've a sneaking suspicion that Arsenal will prevail against Milan tomorrow night.

No side has ever overturned a four goal deficit previously at this stage of the Champions League before, and it's a tall order even with RVP in quite outstanding form. I'm not suggesting that they will actually manage it, but a quick look at the markets reveals that Milan can be laid at 1.04 at the time of writing in the 'To Qualify' market.

So with no regard to common sense, with no calculation as to whether or not such a move is a value bet I've laid them for £1000 with a £40 liability.

Before you send the men in white coats round to Gun Towers let me plead a case for the defence.

I've already stated that I don't believe that they will turn over that four goal deficit. But what if they get two very early goals and look as if they might manage it? Will TQ stay at 1.04? Will it 'eck as like!

If it's 0-0 at half time will that 1.04 have become 1.01? I doubt it - in fact I think the trade might well be 'scratchable' as long as Milan don't score for maybe 30 minutes with a small loss available at half time.

I love low liability lays such as this, and will trade a more conservative Scatter Gun during the match as it fits all my criteria. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if I'm able to turn a handsome profit from the TQ market.
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5 comments:

  1. The Sultan5 March 2012 at 23:53

    Hi Gun, bit confused as to your title! Laying low to back high, regardless of your opinion on the outcome, is value trading - about as far away from having a straight punt as you can get! Is 1.04 value? I have no idea but at that price, it's well worth a shout.

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  2. fedslam6 March 2012 at 08:57

    From Jon (fedslam)

    Great post Dave,

    I'm thinking the same. These low liability lays can be exremely profitable and i can definately see the gunners trading higher than 1.04.

    Can you share my new blog link please? I have changed it to http://jonharris-sportstrading.blogspot.com.

    Cheers

    Jon (fedslam)

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  3. Anonymous6 March 2012 at 17:42

    It looks as if you've already moved the market!, now at 1.04 to back and .05 to lay...

    You may even be able to green up before the match starts at this rate!

    But seriously, good spot and I've I'm free to watch it this evening I may join you.

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  4. SoccerDude6 March 2012 at 18:48

    Yes, I'd echo all the other comments, Dave. Excellent spot.

    I'm copying your idea (hope you don't mind). The downside is so small that even if Milan score three goals in the first ten minutes, there will be only a small loss.

    Top job.

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  5. gundulf6 March 2012 at 19:27

    The truth is that it's probably a half way house, as so often, Sultan. Outcomes don't get backed at low odds like those for no good reason, and it would be extremely unlikely that the lay bet would win, making it more of a punt than a reasoned trade imo.

    Whilst I understand where you're coming from I would say that it is a glorified punt because an AC goal in the first ten minutes will effectively kill it stone dead!

    However, as you and the others point out the downside is acceptable and who knows what will happen?

    Good luck to all who have jumped on. To those who haven't... will you live to rue that decision I wonder?

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