Saved by the bell.... or so close and yet so far

The results:

and my results:

I think a return of over 11% from 8 trades is acceptable, but let's have a look at some of the facts (and opinion, to be strictly accurate) behind the figures.

Five from 8 games were drawn, but only 1 was the 0-0 that so many mistakenly think is common in this league! According to soccerstats only 6.82% of games this season (before tonight) have ended 2-2 and tonight we get more than a third! What is painfully evident from the shot of my results was that I only got on 2-2 at my desired odds in matches that signally failed to hit this scoreline, and the scores in those three games gave no opportunity to use any leverage from that scoreline anyway.

My plan was to exit the Nantes match at half time, as it was  1-2 at thirty minutes. This idea was somewhat scuppered by a 45th minute goal, so with my sensible hat on that was an unnecessary total loss. Sensible trading would have increased the return to a much more healthy looking 22%. But when was I ever a sensible trader?

In the three matches that ended 2-2 I had taken the 1-1 stake of £5 out of the profit on that score by about the 65th minute. The Sedan and Metz games had a third goal relatively early, leaving little option but to take the green on offer. That proved to be the right thing to do in both cases.

Clermont was a different kettle of fish as it stayed 1-1 until the 90th minute, by which time I had greened out of 1-1 completely. The Clermont goal then presented me with another problem so often encountered in these lower leagues, namely liquidity. There could only have been seconds left yet I had to take a totally unrealistic price to square my position as there was just so little money available. Fortunately this too paid off as Istres equalised! I've been doing this too long to let a winning position ride with seconds on the clock - take the green - every time - is my advice, even if you know you're paying too much for it (sorry, value seekers!). This match is what the post title refers to, as the 2-1 took the return from about £17 to just shy of £50 thus rescuing the night's endeavours.

In closing I can't avoid mentioning the ninth game played tonight between table toppers Bastia and basement team Amiens. Bastia were 1.33 in Match odds prior to the off and therefore the match was well outside my (admittedly) flexible odds range. I even toyed with the idea of laying them for the first few minutes as I wondered if they weren't a bit too cheap. And so it proved when Amiens went 0-1 after ten minutes.

Needless to say, despite the odds pointing to the contrary, the bloody game finished 2-1!