Just a quickie...

... sitting here at midnight waiting for something, nay, anything, to happen in the Palmeiras game in Brazil so thought I'd pen my thoughts on a  speculative but profitable trade I quite often do, and why I didn't but should have tonight!

Driving home from work tonight I was listening to 5 live commentating on the Saints v Leeds Championship game. It was 2-0 to Saints at half time, and by all accounts it could have been loads more. By the time I'd fired up my PC and logged on to everything at home it was 3-0 and Saints were set fair for a romp to the line.

Ordinarily I don't watch or listen to matches that I trade. This is because I convince myself there's going to be more goals than usually is the case and bottle out of trades. I've concluded that for my particular style of trading that ignorance is bliss. Because I allowed myself to be unduly influenced by a gushing commentary I chose not to lay Any Unquoted at 1.6 at 3-0.

Any Unquoted is a scoreline which tends to over react massively - especially where a 3 goal to one team situation arises. In part this is because most people ignore it when setting up correct score trades as 4 goals to one team is a rare event, so if a game nudges toward a four goal score for one side people start frantically covering their bases. In  other respects it just reflects the human condition ... fight or flight in a way!

But let's get a bit analytical about it....odds of 1.6 imply that there is a 60% probability that the game will have one team hit four or more goals. Really???? In the Championship, season 2010 - 2011 roughly 10% of games finished with four or more goals to one or both teams. Looking at matches where one side had scored 3 by half time, then 58% finished four or more - ie close to the figure represented by 1.6. This match was 2-0 at half time, and using that matrix the figure is closer to 30%.

I haven't looked at other leagues, and this was a Championship match, and of course it would require a lot of patient digging to establish when the fourth goal was scored. What I do know is that used as a  time limited strategy this little trade has made me a lot more than it's cost me. Judiciously covering liability in small lumps as the price begins to move out ensures that you rarely, if ever, get caught for the whole amount.

There is a large risk with this trade - the faint of heart need not apply! But, when you hear people talk about finding 'value' in a trade this is the kind of thing I think they mean. The odds on offer are clearly light of the actual probability, and therefore in my humble opinion this is a lay begging to be laid!

So, what of the game? You can probably guess from my title that the fourth goal didn't come - Saints 3 Leeds 1. And I bottled it because of listening to other people's opinion instead of thinking logically through the situation in a cold, mathematical sense!

In case you were wondering, absolutely sweet felicity arkwright happened in the Palmeiras game - a 0-0 snore draw!