Tuesday 9 August 2011

Ever scalped a free green on 0-0 and then wondered what to do with it?

As the stats tell us that a 0-0 result occurs between about 8% and about 12% of matches, depending on the league, it stands to reason that the odds on this score usually start relatively high. In a game with 0-0 'written all over it' you could probably get 9 pre-match. Evenly matched games between frequent scoring sides will see 0-0 at between 11 and about 14. There is usually a bit of pre match activity on this score, and if you back at 12 for £100 and lay at 11.5 for the same amount you will have a 'free' £50 on 0-0. You can either hedge that £50 for a whopping £4 on all scores, let it go in play and green up later - assuming there have been no goals - or use it as the basis of another trade.

Here are two simple ways in which you might use that money...

1) Use all or some of your 'free' green as the liability on a lay the draw trade - or as partial cover if you prefer. If the favourite scores first you can almost certainly green up pretty quickly and move on to another trade. If the underdog scores first, depending on the timing of the goal, you will probably be looking at a scratch or small loss.

2) Use  75% of your 'free' money to lay U2.5 goals. This works best after 30 minutes, so there will be games when your free green goes west. Assuming it's still 0-0 at 30 minutes, laying U2.5 at (depending on the game) between 1.3 and 1.5 will give you an immediate green if the first goal arrives before 60 minutes. What you do then depends on how you read the game...if you think more goals are likely you might let it run, scratching at break even point if there are no more goals. If you think the game is spent, take your money and move on. If unsure, remove your liability from under 2.5 and let the trade run - a no lose situation.

The danger with this one is a late goal which wipes out the free 0-0 but doesn't move U2.5 sufficiently to green up. That is why I suggest you use only 75% of your free money. The 0-0 odds will fall more quickly than U2.5 - after all it's a lot further to go! I personally would exit this trade if 0-0 at 65 minutes.

Two simple but effective uses of a one tick fall in the price of 0-0 pre-match. How you chose which games to try to get this free 0-0 is down to you - but be warned! There will be matches where 0-0 drifts a tick or two before kick off.

Best of luck with it if you try it!




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