What an excellent trading card tonight - couple of Prem matches and a full complement of Championship as well! With plenty of goals all over the place there were many opportunities to earn good money.
I liked the look of Stoke v Birmingham and Aberdeen v Thistle - and both came in. Aberdeen was a classic - 0-1 then 1-1 and finally 1-2. The Stoke game was a slow to boil affair - Stoke taking a first half lead before the floodgates opened in the second half. Fortunately for me I'd covered 2-2 pre-match and the game passed through both 2-1 and 2-2 on its way to an eventual 3-2 victory for the Potters.
There were masses of goals in the Championship. Yours truly waded into the market with some low liability U3.5 games, but,as usual, picked the wrong ones, which somewhat diluted the good work done by the two matches outlined above. But, a £50 profit give or take so a worthwhile evening!
A mouthwatering prospect tomorrow evening....
Speaking of worthwhile evenings, tomorrow's card leaves the trader spoilt for choice! Great matches in prospect in England and on the continent.
The most interesting game from a footballing perspective has got to be the Manchester derby. City are marginal favourites, and Fergie would appear to have selection problems, although someone did once say that he's a wily old fox and this might be an exaggeration! City with home advantage, possibly tingling with anticipation at the thought of getting one over on their rivals, United with the grit and determination that saw a very late, Fergie Time winner against Wolves on Saturday....
Arguably the best thing to do with this game is to leave it alone! It literally could be a tight, tense 0-0 or it could be a goal fest! Before you move on to Chievo v Bari, do have a look at the Correct Score odds. The 1-1 is currently at 7.2, 1-2 at 13 and 2-1 at 11.5. Under 2.5 is sitting, at the time of writing, at 1.84. The game has got Scatter Gun written all over it, and in my opinion the key factor in deciding the outcome of that trade is all dependent on the timing of the first goal. As long as the first goal does not come too early I reckon anyone trading the Scatter Gun could green up to a small profit at 1-0 or 0-1 - the market will almost certainly favour an equaliser no matter who scores, seeing the 1-1 odds steam in. The 1-2 or 2-1 (depending on who scores the first goal) will also steam considerably whilst the other score will drift a bit or steam a bit depending on the market's consensus about the game - but I don't think it will move much.
Dangers? There are three obvious dangers as far as I can see.
Firstly it could end 0-0! Whilst I think this unlikely the possibility needs to be considered. But with a game like this getting a free bet on 0-0 is almost impossible as there is going to be so much money being bet on a game of this magnitude. I'm going to try to get £100 backed and laid a tick lower to give me some cover, but the 0-0 could just as easily drift out a bit over the coming hours as come in a tick or two.
Secondly we could get an early first goal - anything in the first twenty minutes could play havoc with the trade, but I think if goal number one is 21 minutes on we should be ok.
Thirdly, and this does worry me a bit, we get some idiot with a rush of blood to the head and an early red card. A red can, and usually does, play havoc with the markets - great for scalping but not so good for a nice relaxed and balanced trade like the SG!
The only other danger, and one that falls into the 'shit happens' category, is that two goals are scored within such a short space of time that the market doesn't reform in order for you to take any necessary action. If that happens I'm afraid you've just got to forget about it, put it down to experience, and move on!
My plan for this game is a slightly modified SG. As well as the standard three scores, I'll add 2-2 and 3-3 to the mix! £2 on each of those scores, and £14 spread on the traditional 3 leaves a total stake of £18 - and if I can get my £100 0-0 back and lay matched I'll have enough on 0-0 to mean it doesn't play on my mind during the game! The point behind the two higher scores is twofold ... it buys 'leverage' should the game go crazy and also it means that if it's 1-1 at say 70 minutes I can consider laying the draw knowing I've got 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 AND 2-2 covered....and if 3-3 comes in I'll have hit the jackpot!
Whatever you decide to do with this or any other game - good trading and 'stay green' !
Good to hear you had good scatter gun picks gundulf! I had a rare free evening last night and decided to try your scatter gun for the first time. I picked Portsmouth v QPR which seemed to match Scatter gun requirements. Anyway I came out with a 40% loss as I had to red up at 60 mins. Of course it turned out to be 1-1 but far too late. I did manage t0 cover half my stake on 0-0 before the off which meant I only lost 40%. Any comments on my execution would be appreciated. I could just have been unlucky.
ReplyDeletejdt - personally if I have 0-0 cover I'd normally just let the trade run. The main danger is a very late 0-1 1-0 which you might be able to cover by laying your 0-0 green. Obviously it depends on your stakes - I rarely go over £20 in total stakes with this strategy and in my opinion the results available allow for the odd wipe out!
ReplyDeleteThere are never any guarantees with the beautiful game - if you know different I'd keep it to myself if I were you!