The minutes ticked by, and slowly my £20 green was evaporating before my eyes - after discussion with some of the guys in chat who had pictures of the match I decided to let the trade run until it was a scratch, and at the same time I laid 1-2 at just over evens. Sure enough the equaliser came - so it was decision time - with about 12 minutes left to play. I laid 2-2 and laid the draw with some of the green I'd already got - at this stage I was +22 if a draw or + 114 if not a draw, with £6 on 2-2 and £42 on anything else. Almost unbelievably, with what must have been nearly the last kick of the game, United won it! Over £160 before commission, and the nice thing is that at any one time the most I had exposed was about £40!
I also had a nice £50 lay of 0-0 in a Polish game - which was also won with the last kick of the game, and a small profit from the Metz v Le Mans game in France.
The screenshot below is of my profit and loss account from Betfair for this period...
Until the weekend....
We done last night and keep up the blog I really enjoy reading yours.
ReplyDeleteSteve
newsportsexchangetrader.co.ok
Thanks Steve.
ReplyDeleteGood to see you back Dave, really enjoy reading your posts, did think that you had packed up.
ReplyDeleteDid ok on the FC United match myself, didn't go in too high as I had no pictures. Got stung on the Arsenal game today though. Doing the overs/unders 2.5.
There is no real get out on that bet when things go wrong, although any suggestions would be gratefully received.
I know some people red out before the odds disappear, but I seem to have this mental block on taking an all round hit, would sooner let the bet runs its course and live in hope.
I tried the system getting out for a smaller allround loss before, and just ended up kicking myself as a couple of goals would go in mid/late 2nd half.
I've blogrolled you on my site and would be grateful if you could do the same for me.
Cheers
Dean
Good effort Gundulf! A good description of and expertly executed trade. One question though. Where did you get your stats from that gave you the stance that Rochdale would walk the game, which is why you had your opening position if I'm not mistaken? Why did you decide to start trading such an odd game or was it the only in play game on at the time? I only ask as I would never even think to look at trading such games and as a result could be missing out.
ReplyDeleteDean,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your kind words. I suspect lots of people fell foul of the gooners on Sunday! I don't often touch the O/U markets these days from the start - been burnt once too often! However, a cheeky lay of U3.5 at 1.1 does no harm at half time! Taking the red is a discipline issue I still struggle with - but I think it's always best to do so at a pre-defined exit point and stick to it! People often say 20/20 hindsight is the best kind of vision but it's a wicked taskmaster! Forget it, and move on.
JDT, partly as you say I traded the game because it was a pretty poor card that night. Sometimes an opportunity presents itself and you've just got to grasp it! I doubt I was alone in giving FC United no chance pre-game - I didn't even check any stats - and if I'm honest at 2-2 the only winner I had in my sights were Rochdale!
Your praise is misplaced - the winning goal was a large slice of luck - otherwise I'd have ended with a total green of about £26 from the match and £19 from laying 0-0 at half time! But, as one of my old sales managers used to say, luck is no more than 'preparation meeting opportunity' - and I think I had prepared the ground well so maybe it was deserved!