Is this a 'Light Bulb Moment'?

I've spent some time mulling over the comments made by Rob and Lamb in repsonse to my post discussing how the SG trade is best suited to goals later rather than earlier in a match. The points made are very valid, and it occurs to me that entering most trades at the beginning of a match might not be the most efficient way to leverage these scorelines.

The whole premise of the trade is that there are two (relatively) evenly matched teams, and that the expectation is that there will be around 3 goals in total. Assuming this assessment proves to be accurate the obvious question is 'when do we expect the goals to be scored?' Unfortunately my crystal ball is still back at the dealer's undergoing warranty repairs, so I am unable to find the answer! However, experience tells me and intuition suggests that in a close contest the early stages are likely to consist of some probing and pushing, both teams feeling the other out like two boxers testing each other for reach, strengths and weakensses. In qualifying games I am working on the assumption that most will still be 0-0 after 30 minutes.

At the half hour mark the 1-1 price will have barely moved at all, whilst 1-2 and 2-1 will have drifted a little bit, as would 2-2. But three other scores would have steamed quite a bit - namely 0-0 1-0 and 0-1. There seems little point to me in getting involved with 0-0. If the game is destined to end that way, so be it. With the possible exception of people actively trading 0-0 as a speciality it is any correct score trader's nightmare - so my intention it to ignore it.

I have therefore formulated a little trial and it works like this. I am going to back 1-0 0-1 and 1-1 at the outset for a fiver each. If the game is still 0-0 at half an hour I will then add 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2 to the mix with £2 stakes, taking whatever odds might be available to me. If the match is still goalless at half time I reckon that by greening both 0-1 and 1-0 that I'd be able to cover the £6 stakes on 1-2 2-1 and 2-2 or pretty close to it. I'd then have a properly formed SG, including 2-2, owing me the princely sum of around a fiver. I know from experience that matches with a goalless first half often result in good wins for the SG, so that would be a great situation to be in.

That leaves two other possibilities. Firstly that a goal goes in before the second tranche of bets have been placed. Unless the goal is ridiculously early I reckon the trade should be scratchable if desired by greening both the odd goal score and the 1-1. My more probable course of action, however, would be to hold fire, let both scores' odds steam a bit more and then re-assess. Obviously at that stage I run the risk of 0-2 or 2-0 and a wipeout from what could still have ended up being a winning trade.

What about a goal after the second tranche of bets have been placed but before half time? The answer, I suspect, depends on the scoring team.

If the home team or favourites (which could, of course, be the away team) score first then my inclination would be to let the whole trade run for a while. The one goal score and would continue to steam, and 1-1 would probably stay roughly where it is, maybe even drifting a little bit. With the passage of time, unless the market believes the leaders are totally dominant, 1-1 will start to come in as well. I think that whatever might happen later I'd green 1-0 / 0-1 once the entire £10 invested on those two scores could be recouped - in other words I'd be in the same position that I would have had using the old method, the difference being I'd have better odds on 1-2 and 2-1 as well as having 2-2 covered.

If the away team or the underdogs were to score first it is my belief that the trade would then be in a fantastic position. After letting the market settle it would not surprise me to find that a decent green screen could be achieved there and then if desired, maybe leaving a nice big lump on 2-2. But that is probably not the route I'd take... The 0-1 1-0 would have been backed at higher odds than the same score on the favorites / home team so almost certainly I'd green that score as soon as the market had re-settled and then proceed in time honoured fashion.

Most of the above is, at this stage, conjecture. Unfortunately the month end pub quiz beckons this evening so I won't be able to try it during the mid evening matches and haven't decided whether or not to trade the late Latin American games. But I am sitting here having written this post with an air of optimism for this ammendment to what I believe is already a winning trade.

Time will tell....