Anyone who has been reading my ramblings for any time, or who has tried the Scatter Gun trade for themselves will appreciate the fact that the trade works to its peak performance with later, rather than earlier, goals.
Because of the frequency with which the 3 scores end up as actual results you can usually, if you wish, escape with an acceptable loss up to about 65-70 minutes. But, long term, you'd almost certainly be better of sticking with the trade at 0-0 or 1-0 / 0-1 or even 2-0 0-2 because of the number of late goals. Over the last few days three games have produced late goals to turn potential losses / scratches into nice profits. Last night in particular saw Godoy snatch a late 1-2 against Boca and the match between Banfield and Argentina Juniors progress from a nice 1-1 to an amazing 2-2 in the final few minutes.
The frequency of late goals is the main reason why I so strongly advocate smallish stakes for this trade...and that, for me, is a mindset thing. If I'm considering a maximum £20 loss (usually a lot smaller so that is a rarity) I'm a) more likely to stay in beyond what would normally be deemed a sensible exit point b) not likely to get panicked into precipitate action as soon as a goal is scored and c) able to withstand the odd total wipeout without unduly impacting on my bank or, more importantly, my confidence.
With effect from1st December I'm going to start recording just my SG trading activities on the spreadsheet I shared with you a few posts ago - then hopefully I'll be able to better assess the long term possibilities of this trade. I won't turn this into a 'P&L' blog so Cassini and co can sleep easy - rather to see if any trends develop which might help in match selection or whether my current 'blanket' approach is adequate..
If the trade works better with the goals coming later, would it not be better to enter into the scattergun trade later into the match. Perhaps at 25 or 30 mins when the prices will have got alot better? Or does it not quite work out that way. This is all assuming the score is still 0-0
ReplyDeleteRob makes a good point, gun. You could lay HT 0-0 for small stakes, to ensure something from the trade, close that at around 30 minutes for a small red if there's no goal, then enter the normal SG trade.
ReplyDeleteYou are both right of course, and in some cirumstances I do enter late first half or half time precisely so that I can secure better odds on 1-2 2-1 (1-1 in the right game doesn't move much).
ReplyDeleteAs I write that, another possiblity enters my mind.... just back 1-1 from the start, entering the other two and possibly 2-2 as well at say 25-35 mins....
That sounds like a plan worth exploring.