Sunday 4 September 2011

Someone made a catastrophic error last night...

...but, for a change, it wasn't me!

The Argie Bargies were waiting for (any/some)thing to happen in the All Boys match when Athletico GO went 0-1 up against Fluminese who were substantial pre-match favourites. One of the AB stalwarts noticed that 0-2 was available to back at 40! Quite a few of the guys climbed on, but unfortunately by the time I'd caught wind of it the money had disappeared. By all accounts a substantial amount was matched leaving that layer with a monumental liability!

There was much debate over the state of mind of that particular punter, with the most popular argument being that he was three sheets to the wind and that drinking and trading do not mix! I think the more likely explanations are that he meant to offer 40 on 1-0, but put it on the wrong scoreline, or that he meant to offer a cheeky back at 40 rather than a lay.

As an aside, for anyone newish to this trading malarkey who is wondering why he might have wanted to offer to lay 1-0 there is a rational explanation. Let's assume you'd laid 1-0 at odds of 7.2 for £100 pre-match. Your liability would be £620. Obviously at 0-1 your lay has been successful, but your £620 is still tied up until the end of the match. If someone can back 1-0 at 1000 for £2 they lose that £2 from their winning lay BUT free up the £620 immediately to go and make some more money with it elsewhere. That is why there is nearly always a couple of quid on the lay side of any defunct correct score. In case you wondered. That doesn't fully explain this situation though as no one in their right mind would back a dead score at 40!

Giving this brave soul some credit for not being paralytically drunk when he entered the trade, he probably wished he was when the score became 0-2 in the 62nd minute. And there it stayed until the 83rd minute when Fluminese found their shooting boots and turned the tie round to win 3-2. I bet there were a few choice words being uttered at a trading station somewhere in the world!

Three lessons here for me:

1) Take advantage of other people's mistakes and if you spot an obvious one jump on it quickly.
2) An earlier post refers - yet another two goal lead goes up in smoke in a matter of minutes - keep an eye out for these and again take advantage of relatively low liability lays
3) The power of the chatroom. On this occasion yours truly was too slow out of the blocks to take advantage of this opportunity, (having a smoke probably!) but several people did because one of the many pairs of eyes in there spotted it and pointed it out. Subs are £25 per month, jumping on this with a tenner at 40 would have paid several months if you had stuck with it and exited at 0-2!

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