There was a steady stream of people on Five Live's phone in session this evening bemoaning the decision of Mr Rodgers to field a 'weakened' team against Oldham. Spurs fans were accusing AVB of similar things. What these people miss, or forget, in my opinion, is that the FA Cup still has a massive attraction to the lowlier clubs. It's their opportunity to match up against the big boys, give the fans a day (or more, if successful) to remember and to benefit from some much needed TV revenue. The magic of the FA Cup is still alive and kicking.
The teams fielded by all of Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs should really have been able to see off their respective opposition. Two of the three can now concentrate on the league, and Liverpool in particular have enhanced their reputation as the cash cow of the current season for us traders who oppose them. The fact that they couldn't is the great thing about the cup.
Matches that go against expectation throw up all sorts of problems and opportunities for traders, which made for a challenging, enjoyable and profitable day overall for yours truly.
One trade I was able to do several times today involves taking advantage of market reaction to events. With the score at 1-1 between Barcelona and Osasuna the price on offer to lay 2-1 was 7.2 whilst the current, 1-1 score, was north of twenty. By laying 2-1 I was quickly able to take a profit when Barca scored again in short order sending the odds out to about 20. Now I know it could be argued that with only about half an hour gone that my lay was fairly safe, taking the profit enabled me firstly to avoid any risk, and secondly freed that part of my bank to be used again immediately for other trades. These situations occur frequently and are well worth looking out for.
I've followed you for a while Gun so I know you know your stuff when it comes to trading the CS markets (scatter gun, etc).
ReplyDeleteI have been trying to find a formula (without success) for CS for a while, but I must admit I have never thought of doing what you did with the Barcelona CS trade.
I suppose that is a tactic mainly unique to a handful of teams like Barca and Real Madrid?
I have tried to focus on the sometimes ridiculously short prices that AUQ can sometimes come in to after an early goal. Again, like with your Barcelona bet, it's not a 'one size fits all' technique.
I'm convinced that there is decent money to be made out of the CS market, so I will persist with it. I've tried ASP and although I do believe it probably works, I just find it hard work sitting on the large red required for the trade for the best part of 45 minutes to an hour. There must be another way.
Discipline is hard work with CS market trading as well (as it is in all formats for me), but I find that when I'm trading the CS market, I'm more likely to lose more as instead of writing a trade off as a loss, I end up laying the score when it gets to 1.5 and usually losing more.
And with regard to the FA Cup phone in's.... as a supporter of a lower league club, I agree with your view.... the problem I used to find while listening to phone in's (I don't bother any more), is that most of the people I've ever heard on them are one eyed fans not looking at the bigger picture.... sounds like nothing has changed :)
Keep up the good work,
Regards,
Jack
Thanks for your kind words, Jack.
ReplyDeleteThere are opportunities such as the one I outlined all over the place early on in matches with short priced favourites, and the risks are small.
Yep, I got in late tonight and seen Man Utd one down at home, by the time I had switched computer on and logged in it was 1-1.... never mind, I'll have a look at the weekend with the Spanish games.
ReplyDeleteJack