Wednesday, 2 January 2013

Contrarian opportunities

I've been gently joshing The Sultan over his eyesight with respect to what I thought was a perfectly legal goal scored against his beloved QPR last weekend, and in that exchange he boldly told me to expect a shock in tonight's match with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. His prediction? A 1-1 draw.

Now, I've a lot of respect for Sultan's knowledge of tennis and trading. His blog is always interesting and worthy of a read, even if, like me, you have no real interest in tennis. With the best will in the world, though, to be honest I thought that being a) predominantly a tennis trader and b) a QPR supporter that his knowledge of football would be..... shall we say, on the skinny side :-)

How he must be quaffing the best champagne from the finest cut crystal glass tonight! Against all the odds and expectation QPR managed not the 1-1 he predicted, but a 0-1 win! So hats off to him for that call.

I didn't, of course, take any notice whatsoever and planned a trade around the expectation of goals, lots of them, for the home team.

What this little episode has  done is to remind me that very often, particularly with a sport like soccer, it is by going against the market that you will find the best opportunities. Your strike rate will not be high, but the odds available should compensate. In this instance Chelsea were in the mid 1.2's to lay pre kick off and 0-1 was north of 30! So a relatively modest investment would have paid handsomely.

Finally, Sultan, I do think QPR are worthy of a lay in the Relegation market. I'd rather be laying them after they'd been beaten tonight but that didn't happen. I do, however, think that at 1.5 or thereabouts there are sufficient games left to see some profit there even if the Great Escape doesn't happen.


  1. just been having a quick look at the blog mate, nice work and alot of effort. i have been on off trading for 2 years now, i actually laid chelsea at 1.2 and backed higher so was waiting on the profit but that didnt come ha. just wondered if you would like to discuss trading tips etc, be interesting to get another persons view on trading. email is if you fancy a chat

  2. Hi anon, thanks for the kind words. I'm finding it harder and harder to post on the blog to be honest, as my trading has got to a sort of 'sorted' state if that makes sense!

  3. Thanks for the credit Gun, very gracious of you! My feeling was that with it being a London derby, midweek, night game and Chelsea perhaps putting out a slightly weakened side, there was a chance of an upset. Just a gut feeling, nothing more. I certainly didn't expect the win though.

    That said, you've still managed to upset me - how dare you label me a QPR fan! ;) I'm actually a Forest fan, I've only started 'supporting' Rangers cos I layed them in the relegation market.

    By the way, I was a football trader for 2 or 3 years before I even knew who Novak Djokovic was! So I like to think I know my stuff, even though I don't follow it quite as closely these days :)

  4. Haha - no upset intended Sultan, but the prose you wrote suggested you were a 'proper' hoop - not a part timer!