Contrarian opportunities

I've been gently joshing The Sultan over his eyesight with respect to what I thought was a perfectly legal goal scored against his beloved QPR last weekend, and in that exchange he boldly told me to expect a shock in tonight's match with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. His prediction? A 1-1 draw.

Now, I've a lot of respect for Sultan's knowledge of tennis and trading. His blog is always interesting and worthy of a read, even if, like me, you have no real interest in tennis. With the best will in the world, though, to be honest I thought that being a) predominantly a tennis trader and b) a QPR supporter that his knowledge of football would be..... shall we say, on the skinny side :-)

How he must be quaffing the best champagne from the finest cut crystal glass tonight! Against all the odds and expectation QPR managed not the 1-1 he predicted, but a 0-1 win! So hats off to him for that call.

I didn't, of course, take any notice whatsoever and planned a trade around the expectation of goals, lots of them, for the home team.

What this little episode has  done is to remind me that very often, particularly with a sport like soccer, it is by going against the market that you will find the best opportunities. Your strike rate will not be high, but the odds available should compensate. In this instance Chelsea were in the mid 1.2's to lay pre kick off and 0-1 was north of 30! So a relatively modest investment would have paid handsomely.

Finally, Sultan, I do think QPR are worthy of a lay in the Relegation market. I'd rather be laying them after they'd been beaten tonight but that didn't happen. I do, however, think that at 1.5 or thereabouts there are sufficient games left to see some profit there even if the Great Escape doesn't happen.