The retail motor trade is busy on a Saturday, so as always no in-play trading for me until the evening matches. In such circumstances I sometimes look for a couple of 'set and forget' trades and a couple of low liability punts to have something to look forward to when listening to 5 Live on the way home from work.
Following on from my last post which discussed eyesight problems and low liability 'contrarian' trades I thought I'd flag a couple of such opportunities for your consideration. If you've an ounce of common sense you'll discard them as the rantings of a lunatic, but for interest here they are.These punts carry a wealth warning so if you do get involved please use stakes you can afford to, and are prepared to, lose.
The FA Cup third round usually throws up a surprise or two, and there are two low liability lays I'm going to set and a couple of tentative backs as well. I don't honestly expect either Spurs or Citeh to not win their respective ties so will leave match odds for braver souls or those able to trade in-play. I do, however, think both represent reasonable value in the Half Time markets - if you can get matched. I'd be prepared to take odds up to about 1.6 - 1.7 on each and will set up accordingly.
In terms of backing the two that catch my eye are both home wins - Palace against Stoke and something draws me to back Crawley against a team with more urgent issues elsewhere in the form of Reading.
Good luck if you try any of these or for any other trades of your own, but I know the best opportunities will present themselves in-play. Wish I was able to partake, but sadly I can't.
I learnt the same lesson today! Laying various FA Cup 3R favourites = net loss. Trading West Ham v Man United = equivalent net profit.
ReplyDeleteDid a NN but split the 2-2 stake on 1-3 and 2-3 instead because United were medium-favourites at odds of 1.9s. The final score suggests that I should have stuck with 2-2. What do you think? Have you ever moved/split the 2-2 stake?
On 20min a goal seemed imminent, so I hedged out of 0-0. This turned out to be quite fortunate with the first goal coming on 23min. (Also tried doing the 0-0 hedge on 20min in Sevilla v Osasuna, but learnt that I need to delay it til later in the half to be able to green CS.)
When it was 1-1, I hedged out of 1-3 (for 18% ROI) and let the 2-3 run (potentially 400% ROI).
Peak cashout offers were 50% ROI just after 1-1 and 56% ROI just after 2-1. Should I have taken the 50% and relaxed for the rest of the game (instead of hedging for 18% and hoping for 400% with 2-3)?
As always, I look forward to your insights.
i traded on the 2-2 once it was 1-1 in the first half, that was perfect . both teams looked like they would score again, i greened up on all scores by laying at 3.4 backed at 18. today i would possibly be looking at the arsenal 2-1 but wait 10mins for better odds. thats my possible trade today. always better to walk away with profit rather than a loss. I am happy to help with football trading feel free for any questions
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