For those wise old sages who claim the League Cup (under whichever advertising guise it is in hock to this, or any other, season) to be an inconsequential competition should have watched or traded the match between Bradford and Aston Villa this evening. This was a proper old fashioned English cup tie with that old favourite of the sloggers from a lower league taking on the might of the Premiership. We Brits love the underdog winning and Bradford ran out 3-1 winners tonight.
On their way to the semi final Bradford had already taken the premiership scalps of both Wigan and Arsenal, albeit through the medium of a penalty shoot out in both cases. Tonight, being the first tie of a two leg semi-final, they beat the 'superior' team fair and square in open play.
Villa have been woeful of late, shipping goals like nobody's business and this latest defeat will surely have increased the pressure on manager Paul Lambert. They did get a valuable away goal, and a 2-0 win at Villa Park will see them through. But I've got my doubts.
As the first leg drew to a close I was already formulating in my mind a cunning trade for the second leg based around laying Bradford in the To Qualify market and backing some correct scores at Villa Park. Until I looked at the odds, that is.
At the time of writing I think the price on Bradford to qualify is massive at 1.87 so my trade will now be reversed and I'll be looking to back Bradford to qualify. Apart from the fact that I consider them highly likely to score at Villa Park, for every minute they hold Villa at bay the TQ price will steadily come in. Should they take the lead, or equalise to 1-1 on the night it will crash.
That's my read of it. Be interesting to see if I'm in a minority of one as usual!
Now a minority of 2, but both defences are porus so a small saver on 2-2 could be wothwhile.
ReplyDeleteDave - quick question:
ReplyDeleteWhen doing your version of the scattergun and got the option to at halftime 1-1 to cashout with 62% ROI...
- do you take the 62% and close the trade?
- or do you increase all your stakes and put some money on the current score (1-1) so it's just about green in case there are no more goals?
Anon, I'm assuming you refer to a match which IS 1-1 at half time?
ReplyDeleteI usually prefer to take the 1-1 stake out at that stage, leaving a small loss or small profit on that scoreline. The prices of 1-2 and 2-1 should, all things being equal, continue to come in or at least hold steady until the 65th minute or thereabouts. If still 1-1 at 65 I'd then decide whether to let the trade run or take the profit available.
Hope that helps.