Angers v Monaco. For all the world a nailed on Scatter Gun... 0-0 at less than 9, 1-1 in the mid 7's and 1-2 2-1 in 11 -14 range. Angers slight favourites. Exactly the kind of game I look for. And... it was in France... so a nice controllable trade.. two to three goals a realistic expectation. No dramas, money in the bank or at worst a small loss if it finished 0-0 or 1-0.
The match busted just about every available major in-play market. It was 3-3 at half time, so all the goal markets bar O/U 6.5 were dead and buried (tbh I didn't even notice if there even was a 6.5 market - it's not one that leaps into most traders' minds when considering a French match!). H/T AU dead (what price that? 25? Higher?). Any Unquoted in Correct Score at 1.24 at half time. CS2 (if there ever was one - again didn't look!) history. Angers won 4-3 with what must have been the last kick of the game, by which time AU must have been over 6 I'd think if not higher.
I've heard tell that some traders use something called 'Poisson Distribution' in spreadsheets to help them evaluate market prices vis a vis current odds. I've read about the thing, but it befuddles my mind. I will revisit it again and attempt to understand it.
In the meantime, from the recesses of my mind, stretching back several moons to A Level French I think a poisson is a fish. That is a noun. Add a 'y' to the English translation and it becomes 'fishy' which is an adjective. I can't help but wonder if that's nearer the mark in this case.
http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2011/05/i-o-compare-win.html
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