Apprenticeships....and shortcuts

Jose posted this comment recently:

Hello Gundulf,
I'm portuguese and I discover your blog last month. Let me say thank you because I feel I learned a lot with you.
One question if possible:
If it's possible can you please tell me how does the odd 3-0 moves with an early goal? Imagine a favorite with +-1.80.

There are no shortcuts in this business people! The only way to really get to know what happens to odds is to put the hours in and watch lots of markets. Do your apprenticeship with small stakes - or even with nothing more exciting than a spreadsheet and pretend money!

That said there is lots of help available in blogland and elsewhere on the web to ease this process, and I'll do my best here.

Cardiff play Palace tonight in the second leg of the Carling Cup Semi-Final. They are 1.74 favourites at the time of writing, so let's have a look at the relevant markets...

Match Odds:

Correct Score:

And U/O 2.5:

Actually, as you look beyond Jose's actual question it quickly becomes apparent that it is an impossible question to answer accurately. Here we have a 1.74 favourite, but a game in which goals are expected to be hard to come by. 3-0 is at 17 and Any Unquoted at 11. A quick flick over to the 2.5 market confirms that market expectation is firmly on the side of less than three goals. Were this a typical Dutch or Icelandic game with favourites at the same odds I'd expect both 3-0 and AU to be considerably shorter, and U2.5 to be in the 2.2 - 2.4 range. Were it a typical French game I'd expect 3-0 and AU to be considerably higher and U2.5 to be around 1.7 or even in the low 1.6's.

The correct score market is one that is subject to considerable over reaction when a goal is scored, and frequently opportunities to make a quick relatively safe in and out profit abound. If Cardiff take an early lead, let's say at 5 minutes, what will happen to those prices?

Match Odds: Cardiff shorten to about 1.3 ish, the draw goes out to about 5 - 6 and Palace to about 11-14.

O/U 2.5 - Under goes out to 3. - 3.5 I'd think.

But with CS, and 13 possible remaining scores, things are a little more complicated. Firstly the price of 1-0 will go out.... with 85 minutes plus stoppages the probability of the match ending 1-0 is lower than it was at kick off. As a guide, 1-0 will be roughly whatever price 0-0 was before the goal. As a guide I'd expect AU to halve in price, and 3-0 to come into about 9 or 10. Both will immediately start to drift back out again as time ticks by.

If we look at our typical Dutch / Icelandic game where 3-0 might have been at 8 or 9 at kick off the odds movements would be far less dramatic. The reason? Basically because the game is heading in the general direction that the market expected in the first place - so there is less 'room' for the 3-0 odds to fall!

So there we have it, Jose! I'm sorry it took so long to reply to your comment, but I don't think a simple 'I reckon it would do 'x'' would have been much use to you. These markets are inter-dependent - all ultimately driven from the Correct Score market, which itself is driven by two factors: time remaining and current score.

For a concise look at how the CS market operates have a look at SoccerDude's post on this very subject. For a bit more insight into how the Match Odds and O/U 2.5 inter-relate (or sometimes don't) Cassini's post makes good reading.