Tuesday 24 January 2012

Apprenticeships....and shortcuts

Jose posted this comment recently:
Hello Gundulf,
I'm portuguese and I discover your blog last month. Let me say thank you because I feel I learned a lot with you.
One question if possible:
If it's possible can you please tell me how does the odd 3-0 moves with an early goal? Imagine a favorite with +-1.80.
There are no shortcuts in this business people! The only way to really get to know what happens to odds is to put the hours in and watch lots of markets. Do your apprenticeship with small stakes - or even with nothing more exciting than a spreadsheet and pretend money!

That said there is lots of help available in blogland and elsewhere on the web to ease this process, and I'll do my best here.

Cardiff play Palace tonight in the second leg of the Carling Cup Semi-Final. They are 1.74 favourites at the time of writing, so let's have a look at the relevant markets...

Match Odds:


Correct Score:

And U/O 2.5:

Actually, as you look beyond Jose's actual question it quickly becomes apparent that it is an impossible question to answer accurately. Here we have a 1.74 favourite, but a game in which goals are expected to be hard to come by. 3-0 is at 17 and Any Unquoted at 11. A quick flick over to the 2.5 market confirms that market expectation is firmly on the side of less than three goals. Were this a typical Dutch or Icelandic game with favourites at the same odds I'd expect both 3-0 and AU to be considerably shorter, and U2.5 to be in the 2.2 - 2.4 range. Were it a typical French game I'd expect 3-0 and AU to be considerably higher and U2.5 to be around 1.7 or even in the low 1.6's.

The correct score market is one that is subject to considerable over reaction when a goal is scored, and frequently opportunities to make a quick relatively safe in and out profit abound. If Cardiff take an early lead, let's say at 5 minutes, what will happen to those prices?

Match Odds: Cardiff shorten to about 1.3 ish, the draw goes out to about 5 - 6 and Palace to about 11-14.

O/U 2.5 - Under goes out to 3. - 3.5 I'd think.

But with CS, and 13 possible remaining scores, things are a little more complicated. Firstly the price of 1-0 will go out.... with 85 minutes plus stoppages the probability of the match ending 1-0 is lower than it was at kick off. As a guide, 1-0 will be roughly whatever price 0-0 was before the goal. As a guide I'd expect AU to halve in price, and 3-0 to come into about 9 or 10. Both will immediately start to drift back out again as time ticks by.

If we look at our typical Dutch / Icelandic game where 3-0 might have been at 8 or 9 at kick off the odds movements would be far less dramatic. The reason? Basically because the game is heading in the general direction that the market expected in the first place - so there is less 'room' for the 3-0 odds to fall!

So there we have it, Jose! I'm sorry it took so long to reply to your comment, but I don't think a simple 'I reckon it would do 'x'' would have been much use to you. These markets are inter-dependent - all ultimately driven from the Correct Score market, which itself is driven by two factors: time remaining and current score.

For a concise look at how the CS market operates have a look at SoccerDude's post on this very subject. For a bit more insight into how the Match Odds and O/U 2.5 inter-relate (or sometimes don't) Cassini's post makes good reading.


5 comments:

  1. Portuguese used to rule the world!

    I started to follow gundulf trades and opinions a couple of month ago, and it took me to look deeper in the CS values. For sure is the most interesting market to follow, because by now, just looking at the CS market i can immediately tell the odds of the main market, such as match odds, over 2.5

    The study of the CS market has been my greatest evolution ever as a trader. But i'm still a long way to go! So as Gundulf say, the best way to dominate completely this market is to trade on it, lose on it, and most important, win on it.

    Stay Green,
    Fraz
    Portugal

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  2. Fraz! Nice to see you commenting mate. I think there used to be a time when 'Britannia ruled the waves' but as with so many things this is no longer true.

    What is still true, and unlikely to change, is that the CS market is the root of most other football related markets and that time spent studying and understanding it will reap you dividends in the long term.

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    1. Hi Gundulf,

      Well…a post as an answer…wow! Thank you!
      Off course you are correct. Thank you for the explanation, it helped me a lot to understand the correct score market.

      I saw that you used to trade AUQ and U2,5 on first 20min. If there’s a goal you will lose money but I was wondering if we can cover with 3-0. What do you think Gundulf?

      And yes, FAZ, Portuguese used to rule the world! (now we let Germany rule us!)

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  3. Jose - you are most welcome. If you stop to think about your latest question you'd realise that it doesn't work, because if the underdogs score first you lose that back and are in trouble with your unders trade :-).

    The beautiful thing about AU is that it doesn't matter who scores!

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    1. Gundulf,
      Yes, I thought about it. The idea was to create a tecnhique that allows profit on first 20min (no goal situation or favorite goal).

      I saw your tecnhique with AU and U2,5 but with a goal on first 20min we will loose money. With 3-0 bet my idea was to "help" and avoid red in case of a goal.
      Off course if the underdog scores first red for sure.

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