'ORDINARY' SIDE TRADES
If I'm totally convinced that a match will be a slow burner I'll sometimes use quite large stakes (relative to my £12 max SG stakes that is) to scalp under 2.5 in play. I'll use £100, backing and laying off one or maybe two ticks lower. The main aim is to get my SG stakes covered on the U2.5 - so that if it finishes with less than three goals I at the very worst break even or have a nice result if it finishes 1-1.
A variation on that trade is to scalp 0-0 0-1 and 1-0 during the first half, typically using £5 on each. Again the aim is to get free cover on those scores in the first half if possible.
Both those side trades are inherently slightly risky in the overall scheme of things, but my experience tells me that the U2.5 trade particularly works well and is a reasonably quick moving market. An early goal, whilst inconvenient, doesn't wipe you out of either the side trade or the main trade. The downside to these two techniques is that they are quite labour intensive, and if I'm trading two or maybe three matches simultaneously this is asking for trouble!
'RESPONSE' SIDE TRADES
Backing U2.5 after an early goal at enhanced odds can achieve a similar result to that described above in quite short order. In a typical SG match U2.5 at kick off is usually around 1.75 to 2.05. If there is a goal in the first 15 minutes the odds would normally go out to between 2.7 and 3.3 ish. After a few minutes of wild fluctuations the price settles and holds for a while as the market waits to see if there is a quick second goal. If this is not forthcoming the market then over reacts the other way and plummets for a while. Time it right and as long as no second goal is forthcoming you can ride it all the way back to the start price and cover your CS stakes.
A more extreme trade is to back U2.5 after a second goal, especially if, again, it is relatively early in the match. Requiring either a steady nerve or a gung ho attitude this trade can really pay dividends. A third goal spoils your day though, so only use small stakes if doing this!
The basic idea of both the above is to secure your CS stake money in the event of there being no more goals, I certainly would not recommend any long term commitment to either - the less time you are in the market the less chance there is of getting caught by another goal. Get in, achieve your aim, and get out!
The last little trick in my SG armoury is the good old two goal lead lay. How many times do we see two goal leads evaporate? Even tonight, as I was going out to my weekly attempt to keep some pretence of fitness, I noticed Ebbsfleet Utd were 0-1 down to Luton. I advised the TF crew to lay Luton if thy took a t 0-2 lead as Fleet are good for home goals. Checking Flashscores confirmed that Luton did indeed score a second in the 71st minute. The final score? A 90th minute equaliser made it 2-2! Hope some of the guys got on it because I reckon Luton would have been about 1.08 to lay! In the context of the SG the two goal lead lay can work really well - as long as the 1-2 / 2-1 score isn't too late in coming. If you can lay a leading team at 1.2 or under with a reasonable time left on the clock a goal to the losing side can result in a 'double bubble' trade as us people in the South of England would refer to it. The price of the leaders drifts whilst obviously the 1-2 or 2-1 is a winning SG score in its own right. The trade is even better if you had 2-2 covered as well.
As with most of the trading I do the primary goal in trying one of these response trades is to gain potential leverage in the trade a whole. I'll happily take a handsome profit out of 2.5 and lose my entire SG stake or vice versa as well as readily accept a nice green on 2.5 and a 1-1 scoreline.
If you try these I suggest small stakes to start whilst you see what the markets do, and again, if you do get involved have a clear idea of your aim and get out of the market at the earliest opportunity once that aim is achieved. Stay focused and stay disciplined.
And finally, do as I say, not as I do!! :-)
Hi Mate,
ReplyDeleteI have started a challenge blog, any chance of a link swap?
http://tradingbetfairchallenge.blogspot.com/
cheers
James
Hi mate, enjoy the blog.
ReplyDeleteAny chance of a link exchange please?
Thanks
http://bet19.blogspot.com/
James, good luck with your challenge. The nags aren't for me I'm afraid - every foray into that four legged area of betfair has cost me money! My fault, not the horses's it's got to be said.
ReplyDeleteHappy to exchange links if it helps you though.
Bet19 - nice blog with a slightly different slant from most - will follow with interest.
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ReplyDelete