The Scatter Gun trade - thoughts after a year or so of trading it..

This post was prompted by a number of different things, but the catalyst that turned thought into type was a question asked by James in the form of a comment on an unrelated blog post. He asked about filters, particularly with reference to some missed opportunities in the form of slightly odds on favourites and how much to stake on the 2-2 scoreline.

At the risk of repeating myself I feel I must make a couple of things clear...those of you who have been reading for a while will know that I am no record keeper! My 'success' with this trading strategy has no proper statistical back up so there's a leap of faith on the part of those who try this out. Having said that I think the Trading Football community will attest to the power of this trade and it is frequently used in the chatrooms for suitable matches.

For this post I intend to describe the basic trade and match selection, in a subsequent post I'll go into more detail about the mechanics of the trade, including discussing our options when the players don't bother with the script. If people are interested I'll also detail some of the riskier but potentially lucrative side trades that I indulge in alongside the SG in a third post.

The Basic Premise


The table below shows the distribution of certain scores for 2009-10:

Note that 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1 account for over 25% of those games. Add 2-2 to the mix and getting on for a third of all matches played finished with one of those four scores. Of course, as traders rather than punters, matches which finish 3-1, 1-3 and with other scores all have the potential at some point during the match to hit 1-1 or 2-1 or 1-2 thus giving us options to trade or let the trade run.

With nearly a third of games likely to fall within these scores it made sense to me to try to devise a trade around them. Hence the birth of the Scatter Gun.

MATCH SELECTION


It doesn't take a rocket scientist to appreciate that matches finishing 1-1, 2-1 or 1-2 are most likely to occur when the two teams are relatively evenly matched. I tend to look for games where  the match odds are between 2 and 4. I'm not too concerned about which way round the odds are - in other words I don't believe that home advantage is terribly important and I'll happily SG a match where the away team are the favourites. I also usually look at the Correct Score and U2.5 markets as well. I'm looking for matches where 1-2 and 2-1 are priced between 10 and 14, where 0-0 is no higher than say 12-14 and where the odds on U2.5 are below about 2.1.

There are plenty of matches which fit the trade in Match Odds but where the other markets suggest a game with plentiful goals. Norway, Sweden and Iceland spring to mind as countries where this might happen but where high scoring games are more common than say in the Premiership between two well matched sides.

James's question mentioned matches where the favourites are quite a bit below evens - and I've got to say that I often take matches on with favourites trading as low as 1.8, but these choices are generally what I would call 'gut feeling' trades and usually would involve teams and leagues that (I'd like to think) I know well.

As an added comfort you could also consult some form figures - either on Betfair or one of the many stats sites out there. Forums like the Betfair forum (if you can put up with all the egos and nonsense on there!) and OLBG, Punters Lounge etc can also offer good clues - there are some very knowledgeable specialists out there dishing out their knowledge / opinions for free.

STAKING

In the early days of the trade I'd more or less Dutch the three key scores, and look to add 2-2 to the trade when the price hits the mid twenties. Over time I have revised this thinking ,and now stake at £5 on 1-1 (odds typically between 6.8 and 7.8) and £2 on 1-2 and 2-1 if evenly matched, or maybe a bit more on the lower of the two odds if there is  a bit of a discrepancy. I still look to add a £2 back of 2-2 at about 25-30. The reason I made this change is that the whole trade revolves around 1-1. If that score is hit at some point during the game we can't lose (unless we get gung-ho and let the trade run with no laying off of liability). It therefore makes sense to weight the trade in favour of 1-1 - effectively we are buying leverage and flexibility.

So in a match where 2-1 and 1-2 are about the same price, and that stays 0-0 long enough for me to get 2-2 matched in the mid twenties my total stake if a whole £11. If there is a larger gap in the 2-1 1-2 then I might stake £3 on the lower to give a total maximum stake of £12. I rarely go any higher, but if you want to I'd suggest you keep to the ratios mentioned here.

The reason I use relatively small stakes is that it doesn't bother me if I suffer a wipe out. I KNOW the SG is profitable over time (despite not keeping records!) but with a maximum of £12 loss I'm not going to be forced into exiting too early, or to keep a losing trade going longer than I should in the vain hope of a turn round.

Which brings us neatly to the question of how, exactly, to play the trade. That's the subject of another post, and until then good luck with your trading.