I'd much rather be out of trade wishing I was in it.....

... than being in a trade wishing I was out of it.

I forget who first introduced me to this little truism, but the words have brought considerable comfort over my trading times as I've lashed myself mentally for not trusting my instinct.

I'm sitting here trading some Brazillian matches at just after midnight and to be honest not an awful lot is happening. The game immediately preceding these matches was an U22 affair between Brazil and Cuba.

I looked at the match, knowing diddly squat about either side and Cassini's words came flooding back to me..

There's little downside to opposing teams at prices in the 1.05 range and you could always be in for a Plzeňt surprise...

Brazil were at 1.08. A sure fire thing, you'd say. I walked away. And then made the fatal mistake of looking over my shoulder. As I type this the match has just passed the  86th minute mark, and it's still 0-0! Brazil can now be backed at 3.65! So let's examine the maths...lay Brazil at 1.08 for £100. A huge £8 liability. Green up at 3.65 (for those who don't know the maths the formula is (lay stake + lay liability)/current odds) with a £29.85 stake for a £70.40 green screen.

I've just glanced over that same shoulder to see 90' on the clock and a Brazil red card - now at 7's.

And the moral is... remember that little phrase, and if you walk away from a good trade without getting involved, don't, whatever else you do, check the result! You'll cry in your beer!