How to trade the Scatter Gun

In this post I'll deal with the ideal trade, followed by a couple of common situations to give you some ideas as how this trade might and can unfold as a match progresses. Unlike many other Correct Score trades which work best with early goals and plenty of them, the SG works best with fewer goals, and goals which come late in the trade.

THE IDEAL TRADE

This one really is idiot proof, and you'll be surprised how frequently matches pan out in a similar fashion. The game is 0-0 at 55 minutes, the 2-2 bet has been placed and then there is a goal. It is better for the trade if the underdogs score first, but the basic premise is the same from here on in...you can either green up the 1-1 or let the trade run. Assuming you do the latter, ideally the equaliser comes at around 60 minutes. At this point you can achieve a fair green screen across all scores, but my preference is to simply remove my 1-1 stake from the trade. If you backed at say 7.4 for £5 and lay £5 at even money or thereabouts (decimal 2.0) you will leave about an even profit on 1-1 1-2 and 2-1 with a handsome profit sitting on 2-2. If there is a third goal the smart thing then is to immediately totally green the current score. The 2-2 would also be eminently 'greenable' but I'd normally leave that alone and keep my fingers crossed for a second equaliser - then you really would have hit paydirt!

UNDERDOG SCORES FIRST

The dog scoring first is your absolute ideal event, especially if it is an earlier goal than ideally would be the case. As long as there have been no red cards to the favourites the market expectation is that the favourite will come back and get an equaliser. As a result the 1-1 score will steam right in. The other three scores will come in a bit, but not as much. If you wanted to, you could almost certainly exit with a small profit at this point unless the goal was very early in the match. My preference is usually to let the market settle and then to reflect on what the markets are telling me. If 1-1 is trading a lot lower than 0-2 / 2-0 then I'm usually content to go with the market and wait for an equaliser. A saver bet (i.e. one which just covers your total stakes) on 0-2 /2-0 is an option. The underdog's Match Odds price also gives an indication of which way the market sees the game going. If the indications are not so positive in the favourites direction I might decide at this point to reduce some of my liability by laying a bit of 1-1 and the score in favour of the underdogs off a little.

I must say though - that with only a small stake at risk, I normally just let the trade run if the dog scores first.

FAVOURITE SCORES FIRST

This is where your trading instincts and preferences come into play. We really would prefer a dog first trade, but in the absence of what we want we have to make do with what we've got as so often in life. Basically with the favourite ahead the market will probably favour 0-2 2-0 over 1-1 - but of course the relevant 1-2 / 2-1 price will come in a bit. You can probably scratch or take a small loss at this point.

Trading now becomes more subjective, or more of a punt, depending on your viewpoint! Again, because of my small stakes I usually let the trade run and hold out for an equaliser. As long there is only a one goal lead prices won't shift dramatically and the scratch / small loss situation will hold for several minutes in most games. The danger, obviously, is a second goal to the favourites. You might, therefore, choose to back 2-0 or 0-2. A less obvious reaction, however, is to back 0-3 or 3-0. Firstly, you will get higher odds and secondly if the favourites get a second and it's not too late in the match you could probably scratch the trade by laying off 2-1 / 1-2 and the relevant 3-0 score.

NIL NIL AT HALF TIME

The SG works a lot better with later goals, but for those of you more inclined to protecting your bank an exit at half time for a scratch or small loss is usually possible. You don't normally find 1-1 has moved too much, and in some cases it might have eased in bit.

The more aggressive stance at or after half time is to actually consider getting in deeper! I'll often put a couple of quid on both 2-0 and 0-2. The odds will have drifted since kick off and what you are really doing is buying leverage in the event of a goal.

There are other eventualities but I can't cover them all! The key to the trade is to make sure you act decisively and don't look back!

In another post I'll cover some of the more aggressive actions I sometimes take to attempt to maximise the SG.