Friday, 28 October 2011

Early goals, profiting from them, and from the expectation of them....

A small group of us were sitting the Green Room discussing how best to go about trading the Shamrock Rovers v Galway match in the Emerald Isle earlier this evening.

The odds of various markets pre-match were interesting to put it mildly. I don't recall EVER seeing 0-0 in a 'proper' league match at odds of 100 on Betfair. Shamrock were 1.09 to lay in Match Odds, Under 2.5 was at about 6 and even U6.5 was 1.25 to lay! The two that caught my eye, and that I traded, were the 0-0 and Any Unquoted. I put £10 on 0-0 at 100, and laid AU at 1.7 for £50 for a total exposure of £45.

In the event it took Shamrock just under half an hour to break the deadlock, by which  time I was long gone! In the opening few minutes the 0-0 price had loads of gaps and some green room residents happily scalped a nice green there - I exited when I was able to double my money - about 15 minutes in I reckon, but was happy to drip my way out of Any Unquoted as the price rose. Interestingly the markets had the game priced right as it transpired - the final score was 4-0. I and my roommates were able to profit reasonably safely because the market expectation was for early goals - and they didn't come. The 0-0 was a bit of a gamble I suppose, but I was happy in the expectation that the price would fall off a cliff quite quickly and it certainly did.

A game with an early goal, and a missed opportunity for this trader, was the Freiburg v Leverkusen match in the Bundesliga. Herr Ballack fired Lever ahead after  about 2 minutes. What is interesting is that in this situation the price of 0-1 and 1-1 both drifted massively from their start positions. Why? The early goal obviously means there was still 88 minutes + for there to be more! What I should have done but didn't was to put a small back on 0-1 at enhanced odds and enter the 2.5 goals market to take advantage of the massive over reaction in there which I'm positive would have happened.

If you are looking at putting together a correct score trade in favour of a heavy favourite where early goals are expected my advice would be to go easy on the stakes on 1-0 and 2-0 - both will be available at significantly higher odds after an early goal, yet won't tumble too quickly if there is no goal.


  1. Hi Gundulf, are u suggesting to lay 1-0 @ 2-0 when there is a heavy fav?

  2. I wasn't - but it's an idea if you think early goals are likely. Odds would be on the high side though.

    My point was that the odds on 1-0 2-0 will drift if there's an early goal, so you're better backing at those enhanced odds if you wish.