First up is Eitracht Frankfurt v St Pauli in the Bundesliga 2. I love trading this league, and a quick glance at some stats shows why: according to www.soccerstats.com 25% of games last season ended 1-1 2-1 or 1-2, and less than 8% of matches were goalless. Investigations of the two teams' recent results suggest this game should have at least 1 goal, and Frankfurt SHOULD win the game..
The Match Odds:
At 4.1 the draw is perhaps on the high side from a laying point of view, but in my opinion is worth pursuing based on the evidence of form and analysis. I will lay it for £25 to a liability of £75 ish.
At the same time I am going to run an SG on this match, but not from the start of the game as the odds on 2-1 are too low. At present the situation is shown below:
The 1-1 and 1-2 odds are fine, but I will delay entry into the CS fray until we've got odds of at least 11 on 2-1 - probably about the 20 minute mark by which time I'd expect 1-2 to be north of 20 and 1-1 to be around the same odds as kick off. If an early goal prevents this I'll trade Match Odds according to whomever scores it. If I invest £15 in CS together with a liability of £75 on MO I'm starting trading with a reasonable amount exposed - but I'm happy to do this as I'm sure there will be at least one goal. Famous last words?
More difficult to call is the second game, an SPL fixture between Dunfermline and St Mirren. Goals in matches between these two sides have been relatively rare, but both show reasonable net finding abilities in recent matches involving other sides. At 3.6 the draw odds are eminently layable, and I will do so for a stake of £50 giving a liability of £125. My feeling is that this game will be a low scorer, and as such I will be backing 0-0 1-0 and 0-1 for £5 each at the start, looking to trade out of 0-0 at 20 minutes leaving a healthy position on the other two scores. So total liability at the start of the match will be £155 - but again I'm of the opinion that I can cover that all off in play. We'll see.
More great posts, gun. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteSomething for you to consider - When laying the draw, the draw price is almost irrelevant, IMO.
Fundamentally, we are backing the fav to score first. If we work out what the price of that should be, we can then understand the level of value we can expect in each situation. Should St. Pauli score first, the draw price will shorten and, if you trade out, you could expect to lose maybe 10-20% of stake, call it £15 for arguments sake. If Frankfurt score first, you should be looking at a minimum of around 30% of stake ROI.
On my ratings, Frankfurt to score first is around 1.75. So, with a St. Pauli goal your red might be £15 but with a Frankfurt goal your green will be around £30. Therfore, you're getting something close to 2/1 about a 4/5 shot, in my book that's value.
Tradingfootball, should not the 0-0 be factored in?
ReplyDeleteFav scores first: +30
Dog scores first: -15
No score: -100 (if stopped out, else much higher)
You have to give the 0-0 some possibility, because it happens every now and then.
Still value?
oh, I forgot to add that the price of the draw has some relevance when you factor in the 0-0 possibility.
ReplyDeleteInteresting and valid points from Lamb and Halt - both points of view having considerable merit.
ReplyDeleteOne of the long standing LTD strategies of course includes covering 0-0 - which to an extent I did with the Scottish game tonight, thankfully!
I'll amend my own statement. The draw odds are relevant, were they not, I wouldn't limit myself to 5's or lower, that limit is in place as the value does disappear after 5's.
ReplyDeleteHalt - If you blanket laid the draw, as gun did initially, coming out after the first goal or redding up at 2's, you should be even. Game selection ensures the edge.
I think people sometimes don't use the term 'value' in the same way... a 'value' bet is a bet where the odds you receive are better than the probability of an outcome. A 'value' bet can, and often does, lose. Losing does NOT make it a no value bet, although you could argue it was a bet with no value!! (Confused? I know what they both mean!)
ReplyDeleteThat's why the above posts are relevant, although I think Halt is misusing the word value in this context...