A client running late earlier this evening meant I didn't get home until just over half an hour had gone in the Frankfurt match. I had just watched my SG stakes get matched on the Correct Score market when the game was suspended and St Pauli took the lead. The draw was priced at 3.35 when the market settled, and although I was reasonably confident that Frankfurt would equalise I decided to dip my toe into the market secure in the knowledge that I'd got a green of over £44 on 1-1 to act as some kind of cover. My thinking was that should Frankfurt equalise in short order then although the draw price might dip a bit there would be plenty of time to score a winner. On the other hand, should no Frankfurt goal materialise the odds on the draw would start to drift. In either case the odds on 1-1 had shortened considerably and I knew they wouldn't really drift for quite some time as long as there were no more goals. In short, I was reasonably happy with my position.
Half time came and went, and the consensus in the chatroom suggested that Frankfurt didn't really look like scoring. Over time the draw odds started to drift outwards, 1-1 stabilised and then also started a slow drift. it was decision time, and I decided I couldn't really risk an equaliser with such a slender away advantage. In the context of what was (or, more accuratley, what wasn't) happening in Scotland I decided to take a modest green on the draw at odds of 4, for bank preservation purposes. My plan at that stage was to hold onto the 1-1 until the odds had drifted to just about the price I had backed at and then take a small red screen on CS for a small overall loss on the whole game. The equaliser came with a fair few ticks to go on 1-1, so I decided to stick as I was... with a modest profit on the draw lay and a nice profit on 1-1 with a smaller profit on both 1-2 and 2-1. As it happened the game finished 1-1 to leave me about £45 to the good.
Turning to Scotland, the game seemed so flat and devoid of chances that I left my 0-0 1-0 and 0-1 bets in place, greening 0-0 at half time for a green of just under £15. I greened the other two scores at about 60 minutes as after that time it is reasonable to expect a slow drift on the odds as time passes by. The even money point on the draw came at about 65 minutes, and I took advantage of the quick drop from 2 to 1.8 with a larger than stake back on the draw, before reversing that and leaving myself with a total of just over £47 loss on the draw and + 10 on a win to either side. The game finished 0-0 so I ended up a total of £20 down in round figures on the match.
So the first two games traded properly probably couldn't have been much trickier, and I count myself fortunate to have escaped not only unscathed, but slightly ahead.
How much more difficult would it have been had I laid the draw in the German match at the odds discussed last night? And how would I have dealt with it? In my LTD experiment so far I have simply taken a small loss or profit after a goal to the underdog, but had I been in the game properly I would have 'metaltoned' the game - about which more another time.
For now, I'm tired and more than a little miffed that I managed to select two completely duff games to put all this into practice with, but at least I'm still smiling!
Good and interesting post!
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