Sunday, 1 April 2012

An idea for an (almost) risk free trade.

I've written before about the way in which the Any Unquoted scoreline massively over reacts to a goal, and, given the right match here is a relatively risk free way to take advantage of it. I used this method successfully with Barca last night. At kick off I laid AU at 3.35 for £50, and a slow start before the expected goal rush enabled me to back it at 5.1 for the same sum, leaving me with £87.50 on AU and nothing on the other 16 scores. When Barca took the lead I was able to lay it at 2.8 ish using that £87.50 as my liability - so in other words scratch on AU and £40 odd the other sixteen scores. With no second goal I then backed AU again for the £87.50 and repeated the cycle at 2-0.

The only liability in this trade was at the time of the first lay. The other twice I was just basically recycling the same money giving me a risk free trade. The beauty of it is, of course, that you can use your judgement as to whether to let it run with the green on AU or to have AU as the scratch and the green on the other scores. You might even spread it if the game is 3-0 and could go either way. If no fist goal is forthcoming then at some point you can lay some of the money off, and likewise if it races to 4-0 you've lost nothing as long as you were sensible with the first lay.

4 comments:

  1. Any chance you could post up your "insurance" policies again please?

    Thanks

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  2. Jamie, sorry mate I've been a little bit pre-occupied recently - very busy at work!

    As I've obviously not got the dicipline to upload the spreadsheet screenshots I've deleted the YTD page and re-instated the one you asked for. Hope it's useful after all those mouse clicks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At how many minutes played in that game was AU 5.1? Thanks!

      Delete
  3. Nice and usefull post Gun!

    ReplyDelete