Eddie, at a Football Trader's Path, has written the first episode of what hopefully will be a fully fledged series guiding the rest of us on how to price up Match Odds. Anyone with more than a modicum of interest in trading this great sport should read, study and digest this post, even if, like me, you rarely touch Match Odds.
An understanding, however sketchy, of the basic principals behind how bookmakers and market makers price up these events is worth its weight in gold when you are putting together a trade on a particular match in my opinion.
The first method Eddie considers is that of using 'Goal Supremacy' as a means of calculating Match Odds. In its raw form this is a mechanical exercise, and the sample match he uses throws up prices quite close to those offered in the markets. In the comments responding to the post, and in the follow up post, questions are raised about how to 'tweak' the mechanical method to take account of the quality of the opposition in the six games from which the goal supremacy figures are taken, the type of match (should cup matches be excluded, for instance?) and even the 'type of goal' with a point about 'deserved' and 'junk' goals.
As always when a piece of writing grabs my attention I start to think about how I have approached these things in the past, and what might change with my new found wisdom.
When selecting my SG trades the Match Odds market is always my starting point. I seek matches where the teams are relatively evenly matched, in terms of market price at any rate. Then I look at who the teams actually are, the reason being that two Scandinavian or Dutch teams closely aligned in match odds will quite often throw up high scoring matches and similarly with two evenly matched French teams you are staring down the barrel of a possible 0-0!
Depending on how many matches coincide on the coupon I might then go and look at recent results, and this is where I think 'tweaking' a basically sound mechanical system can throw you off the scent. It is very easy to start doubting the validity of your initial selection, and then it becomes harder to commit to the trade. But what understanding how market odds are compiled will do is to aid me sense check my estimations of possible goals - obviously I seek at least two and preferably three (in the correct sequence if that's not being too greedy!) by glancing at the prices on offer in the CS market when I've opened it to set my trade.
Whatever your view might be I urge you to read Eddie's prose - and Eddie, if you stop by and cast your eyes over this, bring on Part II please :-)
Hi Dave
ReplyDeleteThanks for the plug of my post - always welcome.
I feel that perhaps I've dug myself into a hole with these kind of posts, or else people reading them have made certain assumptions about me.
The fact is that I am absolutely no expert of any kind. I have been betting for probably less than six years and I make no claims at being better (or indeed) worse than anyone else.
If you've read my other posts, you'll see that I am at the mercy of the same vagaries and emotional weaknesses that seem to strike many bettors. I bet really for fun only and consider it a hobby. My P&L, whilst generally in the green, is largely unimpressive. My average winnings probably don't equate to more than £50 per session. Hardly earth-shattering.
I make all these points just to drive home the fact that all I'm trying to do is make my blog a little bit interesting to read, and one way to do that is to share any information I have gathered along the way. As mentioned on the blog, there is really nothing new in what I'm saying (thus I'm not giving away any edge).
I read lots of other blogs and try and get from those what I hope others get from mine. Everyone has their own style and own way of betting that they feel comfortable with. But sometimes, someone in one of their blogs, will divulge an interesting nugget of information that can lead me into new areas.
This is all I'm trying to do with mine. So I suppose the point I'm making is don't expect too much from these posts of mine. I'm sure I'll make mistakes and show my naivity and lack of knowledge on a constant basis.
To whomever reads my blog, take what you will from it, but I make absolutely no claims of any kind.
Okay, Job done. I have now successfully wormed out of all responsibility. :-)
Cheers
Eddie.
Hi Dave
ReplyDeleteThanks for responding on my blog to the comment above. It's funny that you describe yourself as a bit lazy when it comes to trading as that's exactly how I view myself too.
We could all do more than we do, but unless someone is doing this full-time, then we do all have real lives to be getting on with.
Of course I realise that we're all responsible for ourselves, and I wasn't trying to make out that I was being put upon in any way. If I made it seem like that, then I apologise.