...and returned to the drawing board!
When confronted by two very convincing arguments (HERE and HERE) showing why one of the key 'platforms' of my particular trading style is fundamentally flawed it is either a very stupid or extremely stubborn man who doesn't re-evaluate what he's doing. I am neither (but please don't try to tell Mrs Gun that!).
At the risk of sounding somewhat 'aftertime-ish' I must admit that it the recesses of my mind I knew there was something wrong, but couldn't pin point it. Yes, I'm ahead after trading football for three / four years or however long it is now, but in my heart I've always known that I'm not as ahead as I should be for the vast amount of hours I've put in - progress has been slow.
I've always attributed this to discipline, or more accurately to the lack thereof. That is, and, I fear, always will be, a major shortcoming of mine (I can't even keep those blasted spreadsheets updated properly!). As I don't know of a free or low cost way of curing it, I've got to work with it and try my best to control it. But if I accept the premise that some of my trading decisions are akin to picking pennies up from in front of an irate steamroller then I might be able to overcome the discipline issue by working smarter not harder.
I trade as a hobby, any money made is welcome but not significant to my lifestyle (or it isn't at the moment, I should say). As such I'm not prepared to go digging for loads of stats, opinions, 'formbooks' etc. If that sounds lazy or haphazard I wouldn't argue. I have tried spreadsheets using various elo ratings and other esoteric things that google searches throw up with gay abandon. I suppose my approach could best be described as intuitive - I rely a lot on 'gut instinct' - sometimes right, sometimes wrong. But because trading in play allows the opportunity to adjust a flawed initial judgement on the fly you can often profit or curtail losses by being almost right or not quite wrong.
I am also not prepared to learn other sports. My forays into trading the nags have almost without exception resulted in losses, swearing and chasing. Tennis, although I know loads of people make loads of money from it, bores me to tears, as, I'm afraid, do all sports spawned across the pond (no offence to any American readers :-)). Soccer is what I want to do.
So, how do I go about uncovering this value in soccer trading?
The bit about all this that I really don't get is this...assuming I did all the research and concluded that the true odds of a given event occurring were 2.8 at a given time, and it was available to back at 2.9 I've identified a value back.... in my opinion. No matter how strong my opinion is, and how robust the analysis and thinking behind it might be... in order for my value back to be taken.... someone else must see my price as a value lay. Maybe it's some muppet dodging steamrollers... but in his or her opinion my stake is there for the taking at a good price.
Maybe, just maybe, if I can get my head around that one I'll start progressing.
Thanks for all the input and constructive dissection of my words...it's been interesting and thought provoking.
For those that wondered, being in a minority of one is not as comfortable a place as my closing remark on yesterday's post implied it might be!
Hi
ReplyDeleteif you like to exchange links
with trading tennis blog
please add the link
http://tradingtennis.blogspot.com
and leave a comment
regards
td
"No matter how strong my opinion is, and how robust the analysis and thinking behind it might be... in order for my value back to be taken.... someone else must see my price as a value lay."
ReplyDeleteYou are forgetting one thing........that someone else might just be desperate to get matched, regardless of whether he thinks the price is value or not. There are a lot of people out there who think that way, which included me until recently!
One other thing, when you talk about 'gut-instinct', the problem is that our instinct and intuition is based on our stored knowledge. If you are not prepared to put in the work researching and analysing the market, then you won't have as finely tuned an instinct as other people who are prepared to put in the work. Therefore, your 'gut' actually won't be any good.
ReplyDeleteIn football, which is so popular and particularly top-level football where info is easier to find, it's even harder to get an edge, so there is no way a 'lazy' trader will ever profit long term.
Sultan, with due respect, if you knew how much time and money I've spent researching real ale and the ensuing effects on my gut, you'd understand why I'm prepared to trust it:-)
ReplyDeleteI'll come back to your points in a proper post, but in passing I didn't forget the desperate to get matched trader; s/he was covered by the 'steamroller dodging' reference.
Hi Dave
ReplyDeleteThese last couple of posts of yours have really interested me as I have been grappling with this dilemma myself for many years - and still haven't come-up with a definitive answer.
Like you, I also dedicate nearly all my trading activity on football alone, and also like you I trade the unders markets in the traditional and well-known fashion.
Within this market however, there is a great deal of latitude in the way someone may trade. If someone is the type of person, as has pointed out, that just pops an order in the market for no particular reason, and pulls it out again for no particular reason (other than having made a tick or two), then I don't think that person will make money over the long-term. This is a somewhat condescending judgement, but I will make it nonetheless.
If however someone keeps their powder dry in these markets, knows when and why they are entering the market, doesn't dwell in the market when it stalls, and doesn't get out when it's dropping like a stone - and if that person is able to "read" the game they are watching using their experience and any stats they have at hand with some degree of accuracy... well then I'd say there is a chance that person may have found some kind of edge.
Cassini has a view, and the Sultan has his. You have pondered this and I have too. We can take what makes sense from each other, but these are all only views and opinions, and we cannot say with any degree of certainty who is right and who is wrong.
Presumably you have your own stats on how you've performed in these scalping markets. If you have made money in them over the last few years, then don't let anyone dissuade you that it is not a worthwhile venture. Of course if your stats tell you otherwise, then I guess you'd be a fool to persevere.
Anyway, whatever you decide, I wish you good luck and want you to know that I have enjoyed reading your blog.
I've started my own blog (doesn't everyone?), but have only been going for only a month. I should point-out though that I have been betting for a good few years and have consistently made money from scalping the markets.
Cheers
SoccerDude.
Thanks for that long and well reasoned comment, SoccerDude. It wouldn't surprise me if a lot of people reading this discussion (the silent majority!) have grappled with this one as well at some point.
ReplyDeleteIt's good to have sparked a debate, and to have brought out into the open some of my own failings in my trading life to date.
You've some interesting little trades to offer on your blog, and I will be trying a couple of them out in the New Year. Good to see some 'outside the box' thinking with these markets!
Great post again Gun, one point you made that I would pick up on straight away is the bit about trying out other sports, personally I stick to football and cricket, as I (allegedly) know something about these two, and I still lose :-)
ReplyDeleteSo from that point of view I have made a decision to (if discipline holds up) ignore all the people on twitter currently making money on the darts and who will be on the Aussie Open tennis next month, etc.
If that's what they are good at, good for them and let them get on with it. I've got to resist the temptation to get involved and start doing it as well, and no doubt losing money, as I'm not experienced enough in those fields.
Basically I am saying that trying to learn other things before I have mastered the sports I follow would be a bad move, I need to stick to what I (apparently) know and not confuse myself further by attempting other sports.
Thinking about it as I write this, I actually need to narrow that down more and stick to certain trades on football instead of getting involved in too many different ones.
ie, I do CS lays, Overs/Unders, lay teams, etc, I also try out the ASP system and try to trade pre match. I could probably do with just concentrating on one or two techniques and trying to master them instead.
I totally understand the basis of your piece and I spend days on end racking my brains thinking about it. I can pick a winner, so why can't I make a sustained profit?
Why do I always feel like I take one step forward and two back? I long for the day I finally manage to work it out. Reading your pieces on here you seem determined to get there yourself, we probably need to do that 10,000 hours Matthew Syed, Bounce, theory, lol.
FG I think most traders wrestle with the same or similar conundrums. Like you I'm inclined to specialisation. I know my ScatterGun works - and you know what? I'm going to be more of a 'one trick pony' in 2012. But Cassini has sparked an interest in those two yank sports he does.... will have to do some research when time permits.
ReplyDelete