Saturday, 1 January 2011

A Happy and Prosperous New Year - a good start and a mistake!

Tried a couple of slightly different trades today, with mixed success. The early kick-off was the Hearts / Hibs derby north of the border. I employed a little strategy I've used before with some success - namely to dutch all scores up to 3 goals - so 0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1 and then look to cover the entire stake by laying under 3.5 goals in stages as the odds drop. Coupled with scalping the U1.5 market this technique can be a profitable low(ish) risk trade. With the game 0-0 at nearly 80 minutes I decided to use half the profit made on U1.5 goals to lay the same .... Hearts duly obliged with a late goal and I was able to generate a net green after commission of £45.18 across four markets.

There followed a few topsy turvey trades that didn't go quite right until I repeated the same idea in both the Stoke v Everton and Watford v Portsmouth games. It's a good strategy - the trick is to cover your Correct Score stakes (plus a small profit if you wish) on the U3.5 goal markets and then LEAVE IT ALONE! Don't tinker!

The mistake? One of judgement I suppose. I thought Liverpool might struggle against Bolton but suspected they might rebound after their embarrassment the other night against Wolves. So I just put a fiver each on 2-1 and 2-2 giving me £40 and £100 green respectively. Sure enough, Bolton scored just before half time. When Liverpool equalised just after half time the price of both 2-1 and 2-2 plummeted and here I made a mistake. I took the green on 2-1, leaving a green of just over £4 on all scores and about £120 on 2-2. What I should have done was to have laid 2-2 at 1-1 - 2-1 was always the more likely outcome so I had managed to turn a potential £50 green into less than a fiver. Lesson learnt!

A £59 profit on the day, so a good start to the relaunch - £20 toward those poxy bills and £29 re-invested!

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3 comments:

  1. The Cautious Football Trader3 January 2011 at 10:00

    A happy new year to you!

    Good to have a you back updating the blog. You aren't afraid to try different trades and convey these simply to your readers.

    I'm interested in your match selection for the 3 goals trade. Do you pick matches where you don't expect many goals? e.g. < 2.5s is 1.8 or below or just play on any match?

    Also do you mind if I ask how quickly/which levels you start laying under 3.5 at?

    Cheers and good luck this year.

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  2. gundulf3 January 2011 at 11:07

    I think that trade works best in games where goals aren't expected. I would glance at U2.5 but I guess my main focus is on the Correct Score market odds - if these point to a low scoring game and the likes of soccerstats / betdevil etc back that up I'll normally look more closely at it as a trade.

    I treat U3.5 in one of two ways.

    If I'm unsure how I think the game will go I'll normally start laying to a £2 liability from ten minutes in and lay in 3 or maybe 4 tick increments.

    If I'm reasonably sure the match will have a 'slow fuse' I'll sometimes BACK U3.5 for £100 and lay off in £5 or £10 increments to get a green on unders before using that to subsidise the cost of laying for the total correct score stake.

    I've re-read the above and think it makes sense :-)

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  3. gundulf3 January 2011 at 11:27

    I'm going to do this trade on the Huddersfield Sheff Wednesday game early this afternoon - will take some screenshots if I remember...

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