Sometimes looks can be deceiving...

The Goias v Penarol game resulted in a small profit of £8 after commission, which from a £100 total stake is not that brilliant!

Watching the match on Betfair TV it was extremely quick paced and Goias were all over their opponents in the opening exchanges. In fact to me, as an 'innocent' observer, that is I know next to nothing about either team, it could easily have been an embarrassing whitewash. The ball was in the net after fifteen or so minutes but was adjudged to have been offside, but such was the dominance of the home team that I was wondering how to play it.

My instinct was to take the by then reasonable green on 0-0. This is always a risky thing to do... it would have left me over £80 exposed had it remained 0-0, with the only possible escape route being to take the green on 0-1 and 1-0 at about 70 minutes - but still a considerable loss if I'd taken that option. As I was dithering the matter was settled for me when Goias scored to make it 1-0.

At that point I only had £50 of my stake covered on the U3.5 market, and I was so convinced there was going to be a goal rush that I felt I had little option but to cover the other fifty in its entirety as soon as the u3.5 market settled. I therefore ended up laying at 1.58.

I didn't have to do anything else - despite all the early warnings the game ended 1-0! Absolutely bloody typical!

HOW YOU CAN SOMETIMES GET CHEAP INSURANCE!

Normally if I do this kind of Correct Score trade I would have done something completely different, which normally pays off in the event of an early goal. This move takes advantage of what might be considered market over-reaction to a goal.

Having laid the value of half my total CS stakes in the U3.5 market, and then an early goal is scored, I would normally have greened up on U3.5. Green up insurance? Why? In the case of this match my U3.5 insurance to the time just before the goal had cost me about £15. The goal caused u3.5 to spin out from 1.28 or so to 1.7. Remember I've got all scores up to 1-2 and 2-1 covered on CS - so by greening up on the goal I am leaving my entire stake on CS exposed (minus the green on the goals market) but there would need to be another three goals for me to be in serious trouble. But, if the game settles down reasonably quickly with little or no sign of another goal, the odds on U3.5 tumble back quite rapidly. By dripping small lays back into that market it is sometimes possible to end up with either completely free, or substantially discounted insurance on your main trade.