Thursday 7 October 2010

Keep an eye open for low liability lays....

Starting Bank: £286.01

2 Day Target (2.5%): £14.30

Sorry guys - another multi day results posting!

As traders we spend a lot of time bemoaning low or, worse, no scoring games. It also seems that of late I have been bemoaning a spate of very early goals! A second minute goal in the MK Dons v Charlton JPT match on Monday came before I was fully matched on my 1-1 1-2 2-1 scorelines, resulting in a less than optimal trade. Again this was due to my getting home and fired up literally seconds before kick off! The annoying thing is that, once again, the match finished 1-2 and got there via 1-1! It should have paid handsomely! The early goal does present other opportunities - in this instance I was able to make a few quid by laying O 2.5 goals at low odds. Of course, in doing so, you run the risk of another early goal so this needs to be done cautiously!

Never mind, the match between Mansfield and Wimbledon in the Blue Square Premier also fitted the profile. Wham, another very early goal! In fact, Wimbledon were 0-2 by 9 minutes leaving little option but to get out for whatever I could - which was a small red. This crazy game finished 2-5 where the pre-match analysis and 'gut feeling' suggested a tight relatively low scoring game!

Last night's match was the Johnstone's Paint Trophy tie between Burton and Rotherham. The result was 1-2 but unfortunately this came via the 0-2 scoreline which limits profits because at 2-0 or 0-2 another goal to the leading team kills the trade. If the game goes 2-0 or 0-2 you then HAVE to decide whether to stick or twist! I can't afford with this experiment to take unnecessary risks so I got out for a very modest profit.

 The first goal in this game didn't arrive until the 65th minute, yet it finished 1-2. I had been tracking the odds of U2.5 and U 3.5 from half time. In fact I laid U3.5 at 1.04 for £35 - a liability of £1.40. Unfortunately I greened up after the second goal, but had I waited just a few minutes the third goal sent the odds spinning right out!

These low liability lays in the goals markets happen very frequently. I intended to trade the Fluminese v Santos match which started at 11.30 BST  last night but fatigue got the better of me. The match ended 0-3 and the first goal came at 57 minutes. I would guess that a lay of U2.5 at about 1.2 would have been possible at 55 minutes - so a £2 outlay could have netted £10 .... and so on. Of course, if you lay a minute or two before a goal, you can take an immediate green or at the very least cover your liability to give a 'free bet' if the goals continue to flow.

2 Day's Profit: £17.38

 Bank to carry forward: £303.39

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