I've a day off tomorrow and there is an enticing Copa Sudamerica tie between Goias of Brazil and Penarol of Uruguay at 11.30 BST. There are no recent head to heads between the teams, and I've a suspicion that the fact that Goias are trading at twice the price of their opponents is based on little more than the notion of home advantage. The reason I'm interested tonight is that the game is 'live' on Betfair tv - and that gives relatively safe scalping opportunities.
The correct score and goal markets don't really shed any light on the game either - 1-1 being the favourite on CS and u 2.5 trading at 1.9 ish and O2.5 at 2.1 ish - with 50 minutes or so to kick off.
My initial reaction was, wait for it, 1-1 1-2 2-1! But I'm going to try something a bit different. I am Dutch backing all scores to 1-2 2-1 and am intending to scalp 0-0 0-1 1-0 for the first 15 minutes, slowly reducing my red on the non covered scores, and increasing my green on the covered scores. I'll make use of the hedged tick offset tool in Evo to do this automatically for me.
I've invested £100 in this trade - which is way too high in proportion to my bank. Don't fret - I haven't taken leave of my senses! I am prepared to lose £20 if it all goes completely tits up, so will be looking to cover £80 of that exposure in other ways - primarily by laying U3.5 in stages as the game goes on...
My goal in this sort of trade is what you might term 20/20 - as in vision! In other words I'm looking for a 20% return, and am prepared to lose 20% if it goes wrong...If it goes well and it's 1-2 or 2-1 by 70 minutes I could find myself in the fantastic situation of having a huge green on CS and a similar figure sitting on o3.5.... we'll see...
Sounds exiting, scalping is an art. I tried a bit of it in the world cup and I found it quite stressful. There are two mindsets to scalping really getting in and out quickly for a tick or two at a time, or a more long term scalp where you match at a price and wait a period of time (15 min's or so). The latter, I would say, is not strictly scalping and it sounds like what you will be doing. Cant wait to hear how you get on and how you managed the trade particularly how he insurance trades are put on
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