Trading pre-match

Some people reportedly do all their trading at low risk times, either pre-match or at half time. By low risk I mean  trading when there is no opportunity for a goal to wreck your carefully laid plans! Notice I've called it 'low risk' rather than 'no risk' - an important distinction. I can afford to use large stakes trading like this, and if it should go against me I've got to be disciplined enough to red up - I can't afford to go in-play with my entire bank exposed on 0-0 for example! Hence low risk, not no risk!

As you can read on the 'What's going on here?' panel I have decided to try this avenue to compound the last £100 needed to make my mate's £300 back. I have set a very modest target of 1% of that £100 bank per day, and as the spreadsheet demonstrates this will take me from today until 14th July (Bastille Day, I do believe!) to achieve with an on target performance.

Hit the target on Bastille Day!!

The reason I've decided to try this approach is twofold... firstly I wanted a new challenge to encourage me back to blogging on a regular basis, I was getting rather bogged down in the lack of variety to my normal trading - it was becoming harder to write anything worthwhile. Secondly, I have been using this technique a fair bit recently to get cover on some markets to enable a low risk trade in-play. Knowing that some people exclusively trade pre match, and some apparently do it for a living, made me think that there is gold in them thar hills!

So, where to go prospecting for that gold? And, going forward, how can I use it to my advantage in other trades?

The honest answer to the 'where' part of that equation is that I'm not really sure, yet! I've had moderate success playing the 0-0 and U1.5 goals markets in the late Latin American matches and this is what sparked my interest. I've been backing and laying to the same stakes to give green on one side of the market in order to eliminate those outcomes from a more considered in-play trade. In order for this to work I've got to do one of two things...

Option one is to go for a green screen pre-match. The second option is to take a one sided green in play looking to green up all round as play progresses.

Let's look at 0-0 first. Typically this is priced at around 12's in an evenly matched game so I'll use that price as a benchmark. If I back at 12 and am able to lay at 11.5 I can either green all round for £4.34 or take a £50 green on 0-0 in-play to lay off at lower odds. Great. If the odds go the other way I'm effectively in the reverse situation - can I can risk taking  a £50 red on 0-0 in-play? In fact I can to an extent - the price of 0-0 in a tightly contested game tends to 'hang' for the first few minutes as backers and layers enter and leave the market trying to nick the odd tick or two here or there... I'd probably leave my £50 loss at the mercy of the game before accepting a pre-set red figure if no early goal results.

The under 1.5 goals market, and indeed the other goals markets, also offer pre-match opportunites.  Because the odds are substantially lower the rewards are also lower, but the similar trade to the 0-0 can be attempted.

Going forward it's my intention to investigate other markets - match odds for example - and to look for angles that this kind of trade might give in relation to a scatter gun for example.

Let's see what transpires...