Not sure if this is the right thing to do, but I've done it!

With 18 holes of (hopefully) scintillating golf left to play there is only one winner of the Masters as far as the Betfair markets are concerned:-

and the Leaderboard looks like this after 3 rounds:-

Anyone who follows golf will know that the Augusta National is a potential banana skin of a golf course on the last day of The Masters - just ask Mr McIlroy! They call the third round 'Moving Day' and so it was for our friend Mickelson, a quite fantastic eagle and a well taken birdie at the 18th moved him into what proved to be the last pairing for today's round.

Mathematically he is reckoned to have a 36% chance of winning by the odds available, and I personally think that's a price to lay at. I'm not suggesting that he won't win the tournament... merely that he will almost certainly trade higher at some point during proceedings.

As a small punt I'm having a fiver on McIlroy to finish in the top 5, 25 at the time of writing. This is being a bit silly I know, but I did make a shed load by laying him for a top five position at this stage last year when he was 4 shots clear so I regard this as a 'self funding' punt!

If you are struggling with your trading, read this

Now first off I'm not referring to this post! I wouldn't be that conceited -  I mean this one by The Sultan.

This guy has brought himself back from the edge and completely changed the way in which he trades. I've got some thoughts of my own on this and will return to the topic when they've been properly formulated. In the meantime there's a lot of wisdom in Sultan's words and I'm sure his experiences will resonate with lots of traders, from newbies to wizened old hacks like me.

An idea for an (almost) risk free trade.

I've written before about the way in which the Any Unquoted scoreline massively over reacts to a goal, and, given the right match here is a relatively risk free way to take advantage of it. I used this method successfully with Barca last night. At kick off I laid AU at 3.35 for £50, and a slow start before the expected goal rush enabled me to back it at 5.1 for the same sum, leaving me with £87.50 on AU and nothing on the other 16 scores. When Barca took the lead I was able to lay it at 2.8 ish using that £87.50 as my liability - so in other words scratch on AU and £40 odd the other sixteen scores. With no second goal I then backed AU again for the £87.50 and repeated the cycle at 2-0.

The only liability in this trade was at the time of the first lay. The other twice I was just basically recycling the same money giving me a risk free trade. The beauty of it is, of course, that you can use your judgement as to whether to let it run with the green on AU or to have AU as the scratch and the green on the other scores. You might even spread it if the game is 3-0 and could go either way. If no fist goal is forthcoming then at some point you can lay some of the money off, and likewise if it races to 4-0 you've lost nothing as long as you were sensible with the first lay.