Long time no speak!
After a long period of apathy with respect to my blog, I thought I'd resurrect the old thing for a while. I've not stopped trading, rather I just ran out of ideas to write about, and my real life world has become more and more hectic in a bullish market meaning that I am tired and not minded to write as I used to.
The topic I'd like to address today is one that fascinates me.. namely the forthcoming EU Referendum. Betfair markets are usually uncannily accurate with political trades - until, that is, the British General Election last year. I made good money laying 'No overall majority' - but failed to maximise the win by exiting as soon as the Exit Polls started to suggest an upset was in the offing. That market was, of course, a three way market - Labour / Conservative / No overall majority. The EU Referendum market is a a two runner market:
As can be seen, the market strongly suggests we'll be voting to remain in the EEC - at the time of writing 'In' can (and in my mind, should!) be laid at 1.48 ~ in fact you'd probably get 1.47 if patient. I
I'm sure we've all got our own views on this subject, but a straw poll among people I know suggests to me that the 'In' price is on the low side. The opinion polls (official ones!) put the figures at closer to 50/50 and whilst I don't necessarily think it's that close I suspect there's a value lay to be had at the range trading at the moment.
As the date for the referendum has yet to be announced I think it's fair to assume there will be a period of stagnation in this market, so, apart from tying some money up, I don't see a massive downside to a lay at this time. In my opinion it's one of those markets where there's a lot more room above the price than there is below it.
Let's see if a profit can be generated.