Betfair markets are normally noted for their efficiency and accuracy. Eddie, over at A Football Trader's Path, posted some stats that suggested that the early group games in the Euros would likely be low scoring games with both sides trying hard not to lose rather than trying to win. I concurred with that assessment, even commenting that I wouldn't be laying the 0-0 in the curtain raiser! Listening to the second half of the Poland v Greece game in the car on the way home from work it certainly did not appear to be the dire affair that many had predicted, and maybe it was this that caused me to look at the Russian game in a slightly different light.
Looking at the teamsheets and the quality of some of the players in both teams caused me to question how the market had settled on 0-0 at 7.6 pre match, with Any Unquoted at (from memory) nearly 20. Even 2-2 was mid twenties pre kick off.
Regular readers will know that I like laying at odds on usually, but to me the 0-0 price was a real value lay. I didn't go mad, but did lay it at 7 a few minutes in. Typically, and especially with the benefit of the most accurate vision available to man (20/20 hindsight), I completely ignored the rather bloated AU price. But I did manage a lovely green on the game.
Sometimes the real value in football trading lies in going against the crowd. I'm not suggesting doing this for the sake of it - but if you look as I did at the teams and apply a bit of thought from your knowledge of the sport you can sometimes hit real paydirt.
Let's hope such opportunities arise more during what I think and hope will be a compelling tournament.
Paddy - it's nice to know that you feel able to put me on the 'influential bloggers' pedestal; but I genuinely wish you all the very best in your struggle with addiction, and will happily add you to my blog roll.
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