Sixty percent plus strike rate? Yes - it's true

With ten Euro 2012 matches now played six have finished 1-1 1-2 or 2-1. Of the remaining four, two were decided by one goal, one was 3-1 the other 4-1. Noticeably absent, thus far, is the dreaded 0-0. This tournament to date has been manna from heaven for Correct Score traders in general and the Scatter Gun trade in particular.

Despite the relatively poor odds available on 1-1 a straight bet and forget of multiples of £5 on 1-1 and £2 on 1-2 and 2-1 would have generated a decent  profit.

Trading the matches in-play would have almost certainly have produced greater profits, as reasonable green screens were available using that trade on both the Ireland match and in Russia's demolition of the Czechs. Results would differ trader to trader as individuals would undoubtedly take differing positions in play.

I for one see little or no reason to deviate from this trade for the balance of Round One, and doubt much will change when the competition progresses to the knock out stages.

Pre-tournament predictions about tight, edgy, low scorers also were spot on with only 4 games going over 2.5 goals so far. The stand out for me, though, has been the low 0-0 odds at kick off. I haven't been around to trade all the matches so far, unfortunately, but of those I have been involved with at least two have seen 0-0 odds below 8 at kick off. For those with the bank and cahones the lay of 0-0 must be the trade of the tournament to date.

England v France


Cassini somehow read my post last night as a criticism of England's performance against France. I'm not entirely sure how he concluded that, but in case others might have read the same thing into it let me put the record straight.

In my view the result against France was a perfectly acceptable one. It wasn't the most scintillating of contests but I thought England looked reasonably efficient and the job was well enough done. My hope is that Hodgson saw that match as the 'anchor' of the campaign and set his stall out accordingly. My fear is that he will continue in a similar vein for the other two group matches.

Looking at the matches pre-tournament I think most would have expected the Swedes to have won or drawn the match against Ukraine. The England / France result is probably not too much of a surprise so I guess my thinking was that France would beat both Ukraine and Sweden, and England would at least draw with the Swedes and beat Ukraine. My fear now, and the point of last night's post, is that Sweden's failure to at least draw the game last night has completely changed the dynamic of the group. I think it is fair and accurate to say that drawing with Sweden is now not an option. We need to win that game. So, I am with Cassini when he says (with respect to England's situation) that....

They may well end up failing to qualify, but if they do, it will be because of failures in their next two matches, not because of drawing the first one.

For the further avoidance of doubt and for the record I have seen / remember all England World Cup and Euro tournaments since Mexico 1970, and am well aware that drawing (or even losing) the first game does not automatically mean we're on the next flight home!