Examining the enhancement.....the pros and cons

My suggestion to back U2.5 in the event of an early goal when trading the Scatter Gun has caused at least one reader a problem and cost him money, for which I'm truly sorry. So I think it's probably wise to discuss the pros and cons of this move in a bit more detail.

The main thing to understand is that the aim of this move is twofold in reality. Firstly, it enables you to not have to worry about the score staying 1-0/ 0-1 or indeed if it goes to and stays 2-0 0-2. Your SG stakes are covered. Secondly, the idea of getting in deeper to get out is effectively buying a degree of flexibility in your trade. The downside is that two more quick goals and your U2.5 stake is toast! If it is 2-1 or 1-2 true you still have the possibility of winning the original trade, but at 3-0 0-3 you are looking at a wipe-out! So make this move with that fact in the back of your mind!

So let's just look at two ways of approaching this idea - both based on the assumption of a £10 total stake on the original trade and a goal before 20 minutes. We'll assume U2.5 goes to 2.6 to keep the sums straightforward.

Option 1 - straight cover of SG stakes. To cover £10 at 2.6 costs 10/1.6 or £6.25. Assuming you do nothing more your situation is as follows:  if the score stays as it is you have scratch trade (minus a bit of commission). Your total exposure is now £16.25. If the game goes to 1-1 and stays there you win both trades. If it goes 2-1 1-2 you will win that part of the SG trade but lose your U2.5 stakes. Any other score is a wipe-out.

Option 2 - cover twice your SG stakes - at a cost of 20/1.6 or £12.50 giving a total exposure of £22.50. Why on earth would you consider doing this? It goes back to flexibility.... more on which in a while. If you do nothing else your situation is now as follows: score stays as is you are £10 up minus commission. It goes 1-1 and stays there you've hit a double trade. 2-1 1-2 probably about scratch, any other score a sizable loss.

So where's this 'flexibility'? After a goal is scored, the odds on U2.5 shorten as time goes by because there's obviously less time for there to be two more goals! If the score stays as is and the odds on U2.5 drop to 1.8 in this instance you can lay U2.5 for £12.50 to give you £10 on under 2.5 goals and zero liability on over. In other words you've bought 'free' insurance! If you are confident that goals are hard to come by you might at this stage choose to lay part of your 2.5 stake - i.e take advantage of the falling odds not only to cover u2.5 but to give a bit of profit on overs as well! You might even take the 'tiger line' and decide to sweat the odds all the way down to 1.4 to have a £10 green book on the 2.5 market. In short - you have bought yourself choices!

That's all fine and dandy if there are no more goals - but what if a second goal goes in fairly soon after the first? Your U2.5 trade is now looking decidedly dodgy, and if it has gone to 2-0 or 0-2 your SG is on its last legs as well - not pretty! 1-1 is not so bad, as you are still very much in your SG trade and could in fact probably scratch the overall trade if you wish as the odds on 1-1 1-2 and 2-1 should enable a profit on CS and you could take the loss on the goals trade.

If you are bullish and relatively risk averse you might choose to re-enter the U2.5 market - at much higher odds! The price I promise will hover for a few minutes after the market reforms, and then, assuming no more goals will start to move in. A relatively small increase in liability buys a lot of cheap green! But it's cheap for a reason - the odds are against you collecting on it! So only the brave, foolhardy or supremely confident should do this! If you are not risk averse, my suggestion would be to get out for what you can, put it in the file marked 'experience' and move on!

There are, of course, many other permutations and considerations - for example did the home side score first, or the away side? have there been any red cards? does the match outcome really matter massively to either team? These are the sort of questions you should be asking yourself about any trade anyway and it would be impossible to consider all possibilities without writing the trading equivalent of War and Peace!

Hopefully the above will give you some food for thought - unfortunately there are very few 'givens' in trading live football matches - but in general the more flexibility you can build into your trading the better at it you will become.