The ideal sequence of events for an optimal Scatter Gun trade is that the dogs scores first, ideally just before or just after half time. The price of 1-1 steams allowing options on whether to take some profit, green the whole trade or stand firm in the expectation of an equaliser by the favourite. In an ideal world the favourite equalises allowing the trader to green the trade or at least to have the option to green the trade. The 1-1 scoreline is the key to this trade, although obviously 2-0 or 0-2 is acceptable provided there is at least one goal in reply.
Leaving the dreaded 0-0 out of the equation for a moment, the main problems with this trade occur when the score remains 1-0 (or 0-1) or goes to 2-0 (or 0-2). But I think I have the answer, certainly if the first goal occurs relatively early in the match.
The answer is to BACK Under 2.5 goals for to produce a profit equal to or larger than your SG stakes. The reason I say this works best with early goals is that the odds on U2.5 will go out sufficiently for this cover not to cost too much (regular readers and the boys from chat will know how much I dislike paying inflated insurance premiums!).
This now means that if the trade remains at 1-0 / 0-1 no problem - you can scratch the trade. If it goes 2-0 and stays there you can scratch the trade. If it goes 1-1 and stays there you've hit a double trade - 'appy days!
Another option, which worked well for me the other night whilst I was trying this, is to put sufficient profit on U2.5 to cover 1.5 times your CS stake. Sure the stake required is higher, eating into your profit potential, but because the U2.5 is a relatively fast moving market you might be able to produce a free cover on the game remaining 1-0 0-1 by laying some of the excess profit off as the prices fall. Let's say you are able to do this and the games goes 1-1.... why not back U2.5 again at enhanced odds - again laying off in drips as the price falls.
I am a firm believer in trying to build a flexible trade - one that gives you options. It is my intention to trade the SG in this manner as and when odds allow - and I will monitor a couple on the blog to see whether I really have made a significant improvement to the trade.
i tried this, elfsborg - hacken. Dog score first in 5 min, on 0-1 and i place bet. After 10 min score 1-1 and i lost 50% on Under 2,5 and zero on 1-1! Uuuuááá. :) What´s wrong?
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately there are no guarantess! I used it similarly in a Boca Juniors game the other night with a better outcome, but only because I (bravely or foolishly) decided to stay in both trades and ended up making a decent profit as the third goal didn't go in until the 87th minute. The idea of doing this is to buy reasonably cheap cover on the game staying at 1-0 / 0-1 or going 2-0 0-2. It's also only worth considering if the first goal is reasonably early as the u2.5 odds are then high enough to cover your stakes.
ReplyDeleteSometimes getting in deeper enables you to come out with a nice profit, or if the game stagnates it becomes a scratch trade.
Don't take this line unless you are prepared for the potential downside of a wipeout!
What you think is the ideal match for scatter gun. A light favorite home team or both teams are even?
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