Bet19 produces an interesting and well written blog. For this season he has invested a £500 bank on the long term markets surrounding the Premiership, aiming to double his investment over the course of the season. He charts his progress periodically, giving his thoughts and reasons for his actions and ponderings. A recent post caused me to question his intention of taking a loss on a particular lay he'd made after only 7 games, but what it also did was cause me to have a bit of a poke around some of these markets.
Regular readers will know that I like trading French football, so my first port of call was the Winners market for Ligue 1. The screengrab below shows the situation after just 8 games.
Marseilles currently top Ligue 1 with 19 points, PSG are second with 16 followed by Lyons with 15. And PSG can be laid for 1.39. When I laid United at 1.42 the season was 30 odd matches old. Yet here I can lay PSG for a lower price after 8 matches!
I moved on to Serie A. Juve and Napoli neck and neck after 7 matches, Juve 1.6 to lay. Anderlecht odds on in the Jupiler league market, currently lying third and a few points off the pace.
These are the standouts, and I must admit to having nowhere near the depth of knowledge about any of these clubs or leagues that I have of the Premiership. But surely these prices are immensely layable, not necessarily as a straight bet but as a longer term trade.
I haven't placed any lay bets as yet as at the moment I don't feel I understand sufficiently the dynamics of these markets, and some of the lesser leagues suffer from poor liquidity, but my interest has been aroused and I shall be looking at them again over the coming weeks. My experience of English football suggests that Christmas is really the earliest that one can take a truly objective view of league tables, and I wonder whether that is the case with some of these other leagues.
It would be interesting to hear from readers who have greater experience of these markets - I wonder if any of them also think these prices are too low too early?
Hi Gun, I used to trade on all the European leagues and although I've not kept as close a tab on things recently, I would say the two teams you've chosen (Juve and PSG) I'd have question marks over. PSG started slowly but are still unbeaten and will surely only get better. With all their riches, they could easily run away with the league, particularly when they strengthen in the New Year. I guess it depends on the likelihood of Marseille giving them a run and that's something I'm not so sure about.
ReplyDeleteJuve are still unbeaten, as they were all last season. I'm sure it will come to an end and in Serie A, there are a couple of teams who you would expect to challenge for the title with them. Unfortunately, they are already so far behind, it already looks like Juve's title to lose.
Both PSG and Juve are such huge faves, it's not like in England where 3 or 4 teams genuinely have a real shout and things could fluctuate from month to month. It would not surprise me to see both clubs train to 1.01. So it's really up to you and what you are willing to risk. If there is a team which can push either club close, it may be worth it but I'm not sure Napoli or Marseille are good enough.
Thanks, Sultan, for the insight. The issue I have with PSG particularly is that as we've seen with City buying loads of expensive individual players does not necessarily a good team create! I'm sure it's a 'work in progress' but as IronyPirate says an injury / suspension / loss of form for Ibra might well leave them in the cack!
DeleteI don't doubt that both teams, on paper at least, are exceptionally strong title contenders - the point of my rambling post was to ask whether the prices available at the moment are too low and whether they are tradable. I'll hold a watching brief for now, but I think both will go out at some point even if they then steam right back in as the season progresses.
Hi Gun
ReplyDeleteGreat post as usual.
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Done, chaps, looks like an interesting read, I'll have a proper look later on.
DeleteFood for thought as always, Dave. I can't say I'm a fan of long-term markets, but your analysis of some of the other European leagues interests me, as like you, I seem to trade these more often than the EPL.
ReplyDeleteDoes PSG represent value at 1.69? I'm not sure it does at the moment. They may be unbeaten but consider this: Zlatan Ibrahimovic has scored 9 of the 14 goals PSG have netted this season. He is clearly in form and if PSG continue their unbeaten record their price will obviously continue to shorten. But with 8 games played what if he breaks his leg or has a sudden drop in form? With PSG seemingly reliant on one player to score, it might be worth trading Zlatan alone and laying based on his match fitness/injuries/goal scoring prowess, rather than how PSG as a team are performing... It seems to me that the market has taken a view similar to that in the Scottish Premier League where they expect Celtic to win every match and comfortably take the title. And whilst PSG will probably win more games than they lose, I'm not sure they represent value in a long-term market this early into the season, other than a speculative low liability lay.
The question is, with tight games, and generally low scoring games in the French Ligue, will we see the same swings that we might see in the EPL to take advantage of price movements? As Sultan points out, there are probably fewer teams that will challenge for the title to the end of the season, Marseille probably only being the other likely candidate. So, would it therefore be better to take a contrarian view and trade them, with the expectation that the market will most likely overreact towards them and so their price will swing more wildly than say PSG?
I agree with your view that it's far too early to have any objective view on how things will pan out, but I have noticed recently that the way the Match Odds market in French Ligue games are priced up seems out of kilter with the EPL, with home advantage often being given a significant weighting for no real reason. To me, this either suggests the market lacks the same level of information as we are speculating on the long term markets or for some other unidentifiable reason especially as most games see both teams scoring often with the dog scoring first...
Read 1.69 for 1.39... Still think they will shorten in the next few weeks. Keep us posted on what you decided to do!
DeleteAah.. Matt, music to my ears! The old contrarian trade! That is worthy of consideration.....
ReplyDeleteI can't help but wonder why Chelsea can still be backed at over 4 in the Premier Winners market... are the Mancs that strong - is it too contrarian to suggest that the Manc teams are trading too short and the Blues too long - or is that just a bigoted old Chelsea fan talking?